Iran’s position on uranium enrichment remains a core obstacle, with officials signaling in mid-September 2026 that Tehran will not reopen nuclear talks or offer additional concessions beyond the collapsed June memorandum of understanding. That interim accord, which expired without a final deal, focused on downblending existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision while deferring limits on enrichment levels and capacity to future negotiations. Subsequent IAEA reporting and diplomatic exchanges have highlighted verification disputes and Iranian resistance to halting enrichment activities, consistent with longstanding policy that preserves the right to enrichment. These factors underpin trader expectations that a binding agreement to end enrichment by year-end is unlikely absent major shifts in bilateral diplomacy or regional security dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre?
L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre?
Sì
13% probabilità
$1,755,009 Vol.
$1,755,009 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
13% probabilità
$1,755,009 Vol.
$1,755,009 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s position on uranium enrichment remains a core obstacle, with officials signaling in mid-September 2026 that Tehran will not reopen nuclear talks or offer additional concessions beyond the collapsed June memorandum of understanding. That interim accord, which expired without a final deal, focused on downblending existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision while deferring limits on enrichment levels and capacity to future negotiations. Subsequent IAEA reporting and diplomatic exchanges have highlighted verification disputes and Iranian resistance to halting enrichment activities, consistent with longstanding policy that preserves the right to enrichment. These factors underpin trader expectations that a binding agreement to end enrichment by year-end is unlikely absent major shifts in bilateral diplomacy or regional security dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,755,009Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s position on uranium enrichment remains a core obstacle, with officials signaling in mid-September 2026 that Tehran will not reopen nuclear talks or offer additional concessions beyond the collapsed June memorandum of understanding. That interim accord, which expired without a final deal, focused on downblending existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision while deferring limits on enrichment levels and capacity to future negotiations. Subsequent IAEA reporting and diplomatic exchanges have highlighted verification disputes and Iranian resistance to halting enrichment activities, consistent with longstanding policy that preserves the right to enrichment. These factors underpin trader expectations that a binding agreement to end enrichment by year-end is unlikely absent major shifts in bilateral diplomacy or regional security dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,755,009Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Iran’s position on uranium enrichment remains a core obstacle, with officials signaling in mid-September 2026 that Tehran will not reopen nuclear talks or offer additional concessions beyond the collapsed June memorandum of understanding. That interim accord, which expired without a final deal, focused on downblending existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision while deferring limits on enrichment levels and capacity to future negotiations. Subsequent IAEA reporting and diplomatic exchanges have highlighted verification disputes and Iranian resistance to halting enrichment activities, consistent with longstanding policy that preserves the right to enrichment. These factors underpin trader expectations that a binding agreement to end enrichment by year-end is unlikely absent major shifts in bilateral diplomacy or regional security dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti