Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations feature persistent disagreements over uranium enrichment limits, with Washington proposing extended moratoriums or full cessation and Tehran rejecting curbs on its domestic program while offering shorter pauses or regional oversight models. Recent rounds, including April 2026 indirect talks and subsequent exchanges, have produced counter-proposals on stockpile handling and IAEA access but no verified commitment to end enrichment by the July 31 deadline. This diplomatic impasse, alongside Iran's stated red lines on sovereign enrichment rights, underpins the market's 55% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of the timeline and remaining gaps in verification and sanctions relief.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
$44,039 Vol.
$44,039 Vol.
31 lug 2026
$44,039 Vol.
$44,039 Vol.
31 lug 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations feature persistent disagreements over uranium enrichment limits, with Washington proposing extended moratoriums or full cessation and Tehran rejecting curbs on its domestic program while offering shorter pauses or regional oversight models. Recent rounds, including April 2026 indirect talks and subsequent exchanges, have produced counter-proposals on stockpile handling and IAEA access but no verified commitment to end enrichment by the July 31 deadline. This diplomatic impasse, alongside Iran's stated red lines on sovereign enrichment rights, underpins the market's 55% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of the timeline and remaining gaps in verification and sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$44,039Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations feature persistent disagreements over uranium enrichment limits, with Washington proposing extended moratoriums or full cessation and Tehran rejecting curbs on its domestic program while offering shorter pauses or regional oversight models. Recent rounds, including April 2026 indirect talks and subsequent exchanges, have produced counter-proposals on stockpile handling and IAEA access but no verified commitment to end enrichment by the July 31 deadline. This diplomatic impasse, alongside Iran's stated red lines on sovereign enrichment rights, underpins the market's 55% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of the timeline and remaining gaps in verification and sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,056Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations feature persistent disagreements over uranium enrichment limits, with Washington proposing extended moratoriums or full cessation and Tehran rejecting curbs on its domestic program while offering shorter pauses or regional oversight models. Recent rounds, including April 2026 indirect talks and subsequent exchanges, have produced counter-proposals on stockpile handling and IAEA access but no verified commitment to end enrichment by the July 31 deadline. This diplomatic impasse, alongside Iran's stated red lines on sovereign enrichment rights, underpins the market's 55% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of the timeline and remaining gaps in verification and sanctions relief.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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