Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military authority amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi itself. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of rapid territorial shifts in an airstrike-and-sanctions dynamic, consistent with historical patterns of Iranian retention despite tensions, and assigns minimal implied probability to loss of control by the market's near-term resolution dates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'isola di Farsi non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
L'isola di Farsi non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$198,173 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
1%
$198,173 Vol.
30 settembre
$20,903 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military authority amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi itself. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of rapid territorial shifts in an airstrike-and-sanctions dynamic, consistent with historical patterns of Iranian retention despite tensions, and assigns minimal implied probability to loss of control by the market's near-term resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$198,173Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military authority amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi itself. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of rapid territorial shifts in an airstrike-and-sanctions dynamic, consistent with historical patterns of Iranian retention despite tensions, and assigns minimal implied probability to loss of control by the market's near-term resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$198,173Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military authority amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi itself. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of rapid territorial shifts in an airstrike-and-sanctions dynamic, consistent with historical patterns of Iranian retention despite tensions, and assigns minimal implied probability to loss of control by the market's near-term resolution dates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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