Ongoing Iran-US tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels since the February 2026 conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at roughly 3-6% of pre-crisis norms, with AIS-visible transits averaging 4-6 per day against a baseline of 75-85. Trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for no normalization by November 30 reflects persistent Iranian demands for permit-based routing, elevated war-risk insurance premiums around 15 times peacetime levels, and unresolved issues including potential mines and dual contested corridors. Oil flows continue via pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers, and dark transits, but these workarounds sustain elevated freight rates without restoring standard commercial patterns. While a rapid diplomatic de-escalation or verified threat clearance could accelerate recovery, entrenched positions and recent October 2026 strikes make such shifts improbable within the timeframe.