The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 leadership decapitation, subsequent US-Israeli strikes, and nationwide January 2026 protests—with thousands killed in a lethal crackdown—has reinforced trader expectations of continuity into 2027. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, backed by IRGC networks that showed no major defections and maintained coercive control across all provinces. Power has consolidated further under Revolutionary Guard commanders and hardline figures, enabling suppression of unrest amid economic strain, sanctions, and infrastructure damage without elite fractures or widespread military disloyalty. Recent assessments, including US intelligence reporting, note the absence of imminent collapse risks despite internal factional tensions and lingering public discontent, aligning with the 93.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall before the end of 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
Sì
7% probabilità
$26,110,578 Vol.
$26,110,578 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$26,110,578 Vol.
$26,110,578 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 leadership decapitation, subsequent US-Israeli strikes, and nationwide January 2026 protests—with thousands killed in a lethal crackdown—has reinforced trader expectations of continuity into 2027. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, backed by IRGC networks that showed no major defections and maintained coercive control across all provinces. Power has consolidated further under Revolutionary Guard commanders and hardline figures, enabling suppression of unrest amid economic strain, sanctions, and infrastructure damage without elite fractures or widespread military disloyalty. Recent assessments, including US intelligence reporting, note the absence of imminent collapse risks despite internal factional tensions and lingering public discontent, aligning with the 93.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$26,110,578Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 leadership decapitation, subsequent US-Israeli strikes, and nationwide January 2026 protests—with thousands killed in a lethal crackdown—has reinforced trader expectations of continuity into 2027. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, backed by IRGC networks that showed no major defections and maintained coercive control across all provinces. Power has consolidated further under Revolutionary Guard commanders and hardline figures, enabling suppression of unrest amid economic strain, sanctions, and infrastructure damage without elite fractures or widespread military disloyalty. Recent assessments, including US intelligence reporting, note the absence of imminent collapse risks despite internal factional tensions and lingering public discontent, aligning with the 93.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,110,578Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 leadership decapitation, subsequent US-Israeli strikes, and nationwide January 2026 protests—with thousands killed in a lethal crackdown—has reinforced trader expectations of continuity into 2027. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, backed by IRGC networks that showed no major defections and maintained coercive control across all provinces. Power has consolidated further under Revolutionary Guard commanders and hardline figures, enabling suppression of unrest amid economic strain, sanctions, and infrastructure damage without elite fractures or widespread military disloyalty. Recent assessments, including US intelligence reporting, note the absence of imminent collapse risks despite internal factional tensions and lingering public discontent, aligning with the 93.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall before the end of 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti