The Iranian regime's survival through early 2026 protests across most provinces and a prolonged US-Israel conflict involving strikes, leadership losses, and economic isolation underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces rapidly suppressed unrest with mass detentions and executions, while the Revolutionary Guards consolidated influence under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent diplomatic and military signaling, including threats of escalation and resistance to concessions, reflects institutional cohesion and willingness to prioritize control over reform. Ongoing sanctions, currency pressures, and proxy setbacks have weakened capabilities without triggering elite defections or sustained nationwide mobilization capable of overturning the system. Traders appear to weigh historical patterns of regime durability against these stressors, viewing short-term barriers to rapid change as decisive.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
7% probabilità
$24,831,686 Vol.
$24,831,686 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$24,831,686 Vol.
$24,831,686 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through early 2026 protests across most provinces and a prolonged US-Israel conflict involving strikes, leadership losses, and economic isolation underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces rapidly suppressed unrest with mass detentions and executions, while the Revolutionary Guards consolidated influence under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent diplomatic and military signaling, including threats of escalation and resistance to concessions, reflects institutional cohesion and willingness to prioritize control over reform. Ongoing sanctions, currency pressures, and proxy setbacks have weakened capabilities without triggering elite defections or sustained nationwide mobilization capable of overturning the system. Traders appear to weigh historical patterns of regime durability against these stressors, viewing short-term barriers to rapid change as decisive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$24,831,686Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through early 2026 protests across most provinces and a prolonged US-Israel conflict involving strikes, leadership losses, and economic isolation underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces rapidly suppressed unrest with mass detentions and executions, while the Revolutionary Guards consolidated influence under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent diplomatic and military signaling, including threats of escalation and resistance to concessions, reflects institutional cohesion and willingness to prioritize control over reform. Ongoing sanctions, currency pressures, and proxy setbacks have weakened capabilities without triggering elite defections or sustained nationwide mobilization capable of overturning the system. Traders appear to weigh historical patterns of regime durability against these stressors, viewing short-term barriers to rapid change as decisive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,831,686Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through early 2026 protests across most provinces and a prolonged US-Israel conflict involving strikes, leadership losses, and economic isolation underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces rapidly suppressed unrest with mass detentions and executions, while the Revolutionary Guards consolidated influence under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent diplomatic and military signaling, including threats of escalation and resistance to concessions, reflects institutional cohesion and willingness to prioritize control over reform. Ongoing sanctions, currency pressures, and proxy setbacks have weakened capabilities without triggering elite defections or sustained nationwide mobilization capable of overturning the system. Traders appear to weigh historical patterns of regime durability against these stressors, viewing short-term barriers to rapid change as decisive.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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