Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began February 28, 2026, early April rumors of an IRGC-led coup—such as alleged house arrests of President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—failed to materialize, with officials like Ghalibaf publicly denouncing them as foiled US designs. The regime under Supreme Leader Khamenei has since consolidated, with the IRGC expanding its wartime role without triggering internal overthrow, as key institutions endure despite economic sanctions and fragile ceasefire diplomacy via Pakistan. Absent verifiable fractures, protests, or leadership vacuums in recent weeks, traders price an extremely low 10.5% chance of a coup attempt by June 30, viewing substantial barriers like military cohesion and negotiation focus as dominant stabilizers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,114,062 Vol.
$1,114,062 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,114,062 Vol.
$1,114,062 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began February 28, 2026, early April rumors of an IRGC-led coup—such as alleged house arrests of President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—failed to materialize, with officials like Ghalibaf publicly denouncing them as foiled US designs. The regime under Supreme Leader Khamenei has since consolidated, with the IRGC expanding its wartime role without triggering internal overthrow, as key institutions endure despite economic sanctions and fragile ceasefire diplomacy via Pakistan. Absent verifiable fractures, protests, or leadership vacuums in recent weeks, traders price an extremely low 10.5% chance of a coup attempt by June 30, viewing substantial barriers like military cohesion and negotiation focus as dominant stabilizers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,114,062Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began February 28, 2026, early April rumors of an IRGC-led coup—such as alleged house arrests of President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—failed to materialize, with officials like Ghalibaf publicly denouncing them as foiled US designs. The regime under Supreme Leader Khamenei has since consolidated, with the IRGC expanding its wartime role without triggering internal overthrow, as key institutions endure despite economic sanctions and fragile ceasefire diplomacy via Pakistan. Absent verifiable fractures, protests, or leadership vacuums in recent weeks, traders price an extremely low 10.5% chance of a coup attempt by June 30, viewing substantial barriers like military cohesion and negotiation focus as dominant stabilizers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,114,062Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began February 28, 2026, early April rumors of an IRGC-led coup—such as alleged house arrests of President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—failed to materialize, with officials like Ghalibaf publicly denouncing them as foiled US designs. The regime under Supreme Leader Khamenei has since consolidated, with the IRGC expanding its wartime role without triggering internal overthrow, as key institutions endure despite economic sanctions and fragile ceasefire diplomacy via Pakistan. Absent verifiable fractures, protests, or leadership vacuums in recent weeks, traders price an extremely low 10.5% chance of a coup attempt by June 30, viewing substantial barriers like military cohesion and negotiation focus as dominant stabilizers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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