Ongoing nationwide protests in Iran, triggered by inflation and currency collapse since late December 2025, have escalated into broader anti-government demonstrations with reported casualties and an internet blackout. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi has urged Iranians to seize urban centers, while the Revolutionary Guards blame external actors and vow to protect the system. Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Supreme Leader following his father’s death earlier in 2026 has coincided with internal leadership tensions but no confirmed fractures in security forces. Traders weigh these domestic pressures and potential post-midterm U.S. or Israeli actions against the regime’s historical resilience and lack of verified high-level defections, with diplomatic mediation efforts ongoing.