Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army following repeated anti-corruption purges of senior military figures, including actions against top generals in 2025 and early 2026. These moves have eliminated potential rivals and reinforced centralized authority ahead of the next party congress. Analysts note that persistent rumors of factional challenges or instability have lacked substantiation, consistent with the closed nature of elite politics where public signals of dissent remain rare. Trader consensus on a low probability of any coup attempt before 2027 aligns with this extended consolidation and historical patterns of managed succession. Unforeseen developments, such as abrupt leadership health issues or major external crises, represent the primary variables that could still introduce volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
4% probabilità
$153,752 Vol.
$153,752 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$153,752 Vol.
$153,752 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army following repeated anti-corruption purges of senior military figures, including actions against top generals in 2025 and early 2026. These moves have eliminated potential rivals and reinforced centralized authority ahead of the next party congress. Analysts note that persistent rumors of factional challenges or instability have lacked substantiation, consistent with the closed nature of elite politics where public signals of dissent remain rare. Trader consensus on a low probability of any coup attempt before 2027 aligns with this extended consolidation and historical patterns of managed succession. Unforeseen developments, such as abrupt leadership health issues or major external crises, represent the primary variables that could still introduce volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$153,752Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army following repeated anti-corruption purges of senior military figures, including actions against top generals in 2025 and early 2026. These moves have eliminated potential rivals and reinforced centralized authority ahead of the next party congress. Analysts note that persistent rumors of factional challenges or instability have lacked substantiation, consistent with the closed nature of elite politics where public signals of dissent remain rare. Trader consensus on a low probability of any coup attempt before 2027 aligns with this extended consolidation and historical patterns of managed succession. Unforeseen developments, such as abrupt leadership health issues or major external crises, represent the primary variables that could still introduce volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,752Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army following repeated anti-corruption purges of senior military figures, including actions against top generals in 2025 and early 2026. These moves have eliminated potential rivals and reinforced centralized authority ahead of the next party congress. Analysts note that persistent rumors of factional challenges or instability have lacked substantiation, consistent with the closed nature of elite politics where public signals of dissent remain rare. Trader consensus on a low probability of any coup attempt before 2027 aligns with this extended consolidation and historical patterns of managed succession. Unforeseen developments, such as abrupt leadership health issues or major external crises, represent the primary variables that could still introduce volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti