Xi Jinping maintains firm command over the Chinese Communist Party, Central Military Commission, and internal security apparatus, reinforced by repeated anti-corruption purges of senior PLA officers through early 2026 that eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance. These actions, combined with the absence of visible factional coordination or public elite dissent, underpin trader consensus that no coup attempt is likely before 2027. The closed political system and loyalty mechanisms further reduce opportunities for rapid challenges. Realistic scenarios that could alter this outlook include an abrupt health event affecting top leadership or a major external crisis exposing deep fractures, though such developments remain low-probability within the compressed timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$141,635 Vol.
$141,635 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$141,635 Vol.
$141,635 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm command over the Chinese Communist Party, Central Military Commission, and internal security apparatus, reinforced by repeated anti-corruption purges of senior PLA officers through early 2026 that eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance. These actions, combined with the absence of visible factional coordination or public elite dissent, underpin trader consensus that no coup attempt is likely before 2027. The closed political system and loyalty mechanisms further reduce opportunities for rapid challenges. Realistic scenarios that could alter this outlook include an abrupt health event affecting top leadership or a major external crisis exposing deep fractures, though such developments remain low-probability within the compressed timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$141,635Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm command over the Chinese Communist Party, Central Military Commission, and internal security apparatus, reinforced by repeated anti-corruption purges of senior PLA officers through early 2026 that eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance. These actions, combined with the absence of visible factional coordination or public elite dissent, underpin trader consensus that no coup attempt is likely before 2027. The closed political system and loyalty mechanisms further reduce opportunities for rapid challenges. Realistic scenarios that could alter this outlook include an abrupt health event affecting top leadership or a major external crisis exposing deep fractures, though such developments remain low-probability within the compressed timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$141,635Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm command over the Chinese Communist Party, Central Military Commission, and internal security apparatus, reinforced by repeated anti-corruption purges of senior PLA officers through early 2026 that eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance. These actions, combined with the absence of visible factional coordination or public elite dissent, underpin trader consensus that no coup attempt is likely before 2027. The closed political system and loyalty mechanisms further reduce opportunities for rapid challenges. Realistic scenarios that could alter this outlook include an abrupt health event affecting top leadership or a major external crisis exposing deep fractures, though such developments remain low-probability within the compressed timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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