Putin maintains tight personal control over Russia’s security services, military command, and political elite through patronage networks and constitutional term extensions to 2036, limiting opportunities for coordinated challenges. Heightened Kremlin security measures implemented since March 2026 addressed reported concerns over potential plots involving figures such as Sergei Shoigu, yet these precautions have not produced verifiable coup preparations or fractures sufficient to alter trader assessments. Public approval ratings remain elevated near 67-86 percent amid ongoing suppression of dissent, while isolated military blogger criticism has led to detentions without broader mobilization. The resulting trader consensus assigns only a low single-digit probability to a widely reported coup attempt before year-end, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience against internal threats.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7% probabilità
$121,498 Vol.
$121,498 Vol.
31 dic 2026
7% probabilità
$121,498 Vol.
$121,498 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains tight personal control over Russia’s security services, military command, and political elite through patronage networks and constitutional term extensions to 2036, limiting opportunities for coordinated challenges. Heightened Kremlin security measures implemented since March 2026 addressed reported concerns over potential plots involving figures such as Sergei Shoigu, yet these precautions have not produced verifiable coup preparations or fractures sufficient to alter trader assessments. Public approval ratings remain elevated near 67-86 percent amid ongoing suppression of dissent, while isolated military blogger criticism has led to detentions without broader mobilization. The resulting trader consensus assigns only a low single-digit probability to a widely reported coup attempt before year-end, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience against internal threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$121,498Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains tight personal control over Russia’s security services, military command, and political elite through patronage networks and constitutional term extensions to 2036, limiting opportunities for coordinated challenges. Heightened Kremlin security measures implemented since March 2026 addressed reported concerns over potential plots involving figures such as Sergei Shoigu, yet these precautions have not produced verifiable coup preparations or fractures sufficient to alter trader assessments. Public approval ratings remain elevated near 67-86 percent amid ongoing suppression of dissent, while isolated military blogger criticism has led to detentions without broader mobilization. The resulting trader consensus assigns only a low single-digit probability to a widely reported coup attempt before year-end, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience against internal threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,498Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains tight personal control over Russia’s security services, military command, and political elite through patronage networks and constitutional term extensions to 2036, limiting opportunities for coordinated challenges. Heightened Kremlin security measures implemented since March 2026 addressed reported concerns over potential plots involving figures such as Sergei Shoigu, yet these precautions have not produced verifiable coup preparations or fractures sufficient to alter trader assessments. Public approval ratings remain elevated near 67-86 percent amid ongoing suppression of dissent, while isolated military blogger criticism has led to detentions without broader mobilization. The resulting trader consensus assigns only a low single-digit probability to a widely reported coup attempt before year-end, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience against internal threats.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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