Ongoing diplomatic efforts under U.S. mediation have produced limited results, including multiple rounds of talks in early 2026 and a brief three-day ceasefire in May that enabled a large prisoner exchange but did not extend. Russia continues to reject any ceasefire without Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas, while Ukraine links any agreement to security guarantees and withdrawal conditions. Recent battlefield developments show incremental Russian advances toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillya alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia, prompting Russian command changes. July coordination between Kyiv and Washington explored partial measures such as an air truce, yet core disputes over territory and sequencing remain unresolved, sustaining uncertainty around near-term comprehensive agreements.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo di cessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro...?
Accordo di cessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro...?
$5,853,831 Vol.
31 ott 2026
31 ottobre
14%
31 agosto
3%
31 dicembre
28%
$5,853,831 Vol.
31 ottobre
$839,043 Vol.
14%
31 agosto
$356,120 Vol.
3%
31 dicembre
$2,121,336 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts under U.S. mediation have produced limited results, including multiple rounds of talks in early 2026 and a brief three-day ceasefire in May that enabled a large prisoner exchange but did not extend. Russia continues to reject any ceasefire without Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas, while Ukraine links any agreement to security guarantees and withdrawal conditions. Recent battlefield developments show incremental Russian advances toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillya alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia, prompting Russian command changes. July coordination between Kyiv and Washington explored partial measures such as an air truce, yet core disputes over territory and sequencing remain unresolved, sustaining uncertainty around near-term comprehensive agreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,853,831Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts under U.S. mediation have produced limited results, including multiple rounds of talks in early 2026 and a brief three-day ceasefire in May that enabled a large prisoner exchange but did not extend. Russia continues to reject any ceasefire without Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas, while Ukraine links any agreement to security guarantees and withdrawal conditions. Recent battlefield developments show incremental Russian advances toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillya alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia, prompting Russian command changes. July coordination between Kyiv and Washington explored partial measures such as an air truce, yet core disputes over territory and sequencing remain unresolved, sustaining uncertainty around near-term comprehensive agreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,853,831Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts under U.S. mediation have produced limited results, including multiple rounds of talks in early 2026 and a brief three-day ceasefire in May that enabled a large prisoner exchange but did not extend. Russia continues to reject any ceasefire without Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas, while Ukraine links any agreement to security guarantees and withdrawal conditions. Recent battlefield developments show incremental Russian advances toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillya alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia, prompting Russian command changes. July coordination between Kyiv and Washington explored partial measures such as an air truce, yet core disputes over territory and sequencing remain unresolved, sustaining uncertainty around near-term comprehensive agreements.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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