Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo di cessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro...?
Accordo di cessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro...?
$4,884,772 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno
<1%
31 ottobre
25%
August 31
13%
31 dicembre
41%
$4,884,772 Vol.
30 giugno
$1,577,485 Vol.
<1%
31 ottobre
$569,284 Vol.
25%
August 31
$19,978 Vol.
13%
31 dicembre
$1,900,791 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$4,884,772Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,884,772Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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