Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy underpin the 84% implied probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Russian forces continue incremental advances in southeastern Ukraine amid intensified drone and missile exchanges, while the Kremlin stated in mid-July 2026 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming negotiations. Trilateral talks earlier in the year produced only limited prisoner exchanges without addressing core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Ukrainian officials have projected possible talks later in 2026 after the current offensive phase, yet historical patterns and unresolved demands suggest any agreement would require extended bargaining beyond year-end. Traders weigh these active conflict dynamics and diplomatic timelines when assessing near-term resolution odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
16% probabilità
$2,557,337 Vol.
$2,557,337 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
16% probabilità
$2,557,337 Vol.
$2,557,337 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy underpin the 84% implied probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Russian forces continue incremental advances in southeastern Ukraine amid intensified drone and missile exchanges, while the Kremlin stated in mid-July 2026 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming negotiations. Trilateral talks earlier in the year produced only limited prisoner exchanges without addressing core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Ukrainian officials have projected possible talks later in 2026 after the current offensive phase, yet historical patterns and unresolved demands suggest any agreement would require extended bargaining beyond year-end. Traders weigh these active conflict dynamics and diplomatic timelines when assessing near-term resolution odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,557,337Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy underpin the 84% implied probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Russian forces continue incremental advances in southeastern Ukraine amid intensified drone and missile exchanges, while the Kremlin stated in mid-July 2026 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming negotiations. Trilateral talks earlier in the year produced only limited prisoner exchanges without addressing core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Ukrainian officials have projected possible talks later in 2026 after the current offensive phase, yet historical patterns and unresolved demands suggest any agreement would require extended bargaining beyond year-end. Traders weigh these active conflict dynamics and diplomatic timelines when assessing near-term resolution odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,557,337Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy underpin the 84% implied probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Russian forces continue incremental advances in southeastern Ukraine amid intensified drone and missile exchanges, while the Kremlin stated in mid-July 2026 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming negotiations. Trilateral talks earlier in the year produced only limited prisoner exchanges without addressing core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Ukrainian officials have projected possible talks later in 2026 after the current offensive phase, yet historical patterns and unresolved demands suggest any agreement would require extended bargaining beyond year-end. Traders weigh these active conflict dynamics and diplomatic timelines when assessing near-term resolution odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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