**Traders assign a 71.5% probability to “No” on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because core obstacles remain unresolved amid stalled diplomacy.** US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires, with formal negotiations pausing after US priorities shifted to the Iran conflict. Ukraine has offered an unlimited ceasefire along current lines plus security guarantees involving European forces, while Russia continues demanding territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian defense capabilities that Kyiv rejects. Recent June 2026 proposals from President Zelenskyy for direct leader-level talks were dismissed by Moscow, and European-backed frameworks have similarly failed to bridge gaps. With fighting ongoing and no scheduled breakthrough events in the resolution window, the market consensus reflects the entrenched positions and lack of verifiable momentum toward a comprehensive signed agreement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,362,814 Vol.
$2,362,814 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$2,362,814 Vol.
$2,362,814 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Traders assign a 71.5% probability to “No” on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because core obstacles remain unresolved amid stalled diplomacy.** US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires, with formal negotiations pausing after US priorities shifted to the Iran conflict. Ukraine has offered an unlimited ceasefire along current lines plus security guarantees involving European forces, while Russia continues demanding territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian defense capabilities that Kyiv rejects. Recent June 2026 proposals from President Zelenskyy for direct leader-level talks were dismissed by Moscow, and European-backed frameworks have similarly failed to bridge gaps. With fighting ongoing and no scheduled breakthrough events in the resolution window, the market consensus reflects the entrenched positions and lack of verifiable momentum toward a comprehensive signed agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,362,814Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Traders assign a 71.5% probability to “No” on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because core obstacles remain unresolved amid stalled diplomacy.** US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires, with formal negotiations pausing after US priorities shifted to the Iran conflict. Ukraine has offered an unlimited ceasefire along current lines plus security guarantees involving European forces, while Russia continues demanding territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian defense capabilities that Kyiv rejects. Recent June 2026 proposals from President Zelenskyy for direct leader-level talks were dismissed by Moscow, and European-backed frameworks have similarly failed to bridge gaps. With fighting ongoing and no scheduled breakthrough events in the resolution window, the market consensus reflects the entrenched positions and lack of verifiable momentum toward a comprehensive signed agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,362,814Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 71.5% probability to “No” on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because core obstacles remain unresolved amid stalled diplomacy.** US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires, with formal negotiations pausing after US priorities shifted to the Iran conflict. Ukraine has offered an unlimited ceasefire along current lines plus security guarantees involving European forces, while Russia continues demanding territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian defense capabilities that Kyiv rejects. Recent June 2026 proposals from President Zelenskyy for direct leader-level talks were dismissed by Moscow, and European-backed frameworks have similarly failed to bridge gaps. With fighting ongoing and no scheduled breakthrough events in the resolution window, the market consensus reflects the entrenched positions and lack of verifiable momentum toward a comprehensive signed agreement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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