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icon for L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?
Geopolitica·Iran

L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?

icon for L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?
Geopolitica·Iran

L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?

NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Polymarket

$2,872 Vol.

Polymarket

31 agosto

$2,806 Vol.

7%

30 settembre

$66 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Ukrainian strikes on Iranian and Russian-linked vessels in the Caspian Sea on July 25, 2026, have heightened tensions, with Iranian officials condemning the attacks and issuing threats of retaliation. These incidents follow Iran's March 2026 warnings to Kyiv over Ukrainian drone assistance to Israel and ongoing Iranian arms shipments to Russia that enable strikes on Ukrainian territory. Ukraine's designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization and its efforts to disrupt sanctions-evading supply routes further escalate bilateral friction. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether Tehran will respond with direct targeting of Ukrainian assets or personnel amid broader regional conflicts involving Russia and Israel. No scheduled diplomatic summits or de-escalation talks are imminent to alter the trajectory in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

A military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,872
Data di fine
30 set 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 27, 2026, 11:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Ukrainian strikes on Iranian and Russian-linked vessels in the Caspian Sea on July 25, 2026, have heightened tensions, with Iranian officials condemning the attacks and issuing threats of retaliation. These incidents follow Iran's March 2026 warnings to Kyiv over Ukrainian drone assistance to Israel and ongoing Iranian arms shipments to Russia that enable strikes on Ukrainian territory. Ukraine's designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization and its efforts to disrupt sanctions-evading supply routes further escalate bilateral friction. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether Tehran will respond with direct targeting of Ukrainian assets or personnel amid broader regional conflicts involving Russia and Israel. No scheduled diplomatic summits or de-escalation talks are imminent to alter the trajectory in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

A military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,872
Data di fine
30 set 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 27, 2026, 11:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Domande frequenti

"L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "30 settembre" a 12%, seguito da "31 agosto" a 7%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 12¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 12% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jul 27, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?" è "30 settembre" a 12%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 12% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "31 agosto" a 7%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "L'Iran prenderà di mira l'Ucraina per...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.