The Iranian regime has demonstrated notable resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure, as well as subsequent protests and economic strain. Institutions including the IRGC have maintained operational control amid the ongoing conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent August 2026 developments showing the leadership pursuing both diplomatic channels and threats of escalation rather than facing internal collapse. Trader consensus at 98.4% against regime fall by September 30 reflects this track record of endurance through leadership vacuums and external pressure, consistent with historical patterns where such systems absorb shocks without rapid disintegration. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden mass protests or elite fractures if economic conditions worsen sharply or new military setbacks occur before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 settembre?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 settembre?
Sì
2% probabilità
$1,638,806 Vol.
$1,638,806 Vol.
29 set 2026
Sì
2% probabilità
$1,638,806 Vol.
$1,638,806 Vol.
29 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has demonstrated notable resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure, as well as subsequent protests and economic strain. Institutions including the IRGC have maintained operational control amid the ongoing conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent August 2026 developments showing the leadership pursuing both diplomatic channels and threats of escalation rather than facing internal collapse. Trader consensus at 98.4% against regime fall by September 30 reflects this track record of endurance through leadership vacuums and external pressure, consistent with historical patterns where such systems absorb shocks without rapid disintegration. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden mass protests or elite fractures if economic conditions worsen sharply or new military setbacks occur before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,638,806Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has demonstrated notable resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure, as well as subsequent protests and economic strain. Institutions including the IRGC have maintained operational control amid the ongoing conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent August 2026 developments showing the leadership pursuing both diplomatic channels and threats of escalation rather than facing internal collapse. Trader consensus at 98.4% against regime fall by September 30 reflects this track record of endurance through leadership vacuums and external pressure, consistent with historical patterns where such systems absorb shocks without rapid disintegration. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden mass protests or elite fractures if economic conditions worsen sharply or new military setbacks occur before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,638,806Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime has demonstrated notable resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure, as well as subsequent protests and economic strain. Institutions including the IRGC have maintained operational control amid the ongoing conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent August 2026 developments showing the leadership pursuing both diplomatic channels and threats of escalation rather than facing internal collapse. Trader consensus at 98.4% against regime fall by September 30 reflects this track record of endurance through leadership vacuums and external pressure, consistent with historical patterns where such systems absorb shocks without rapid disintegration. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden mass protests or elite fractures if economic conditions worsen sharply or new military setbacks occur before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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