Sustained Chinese gray-zone pressure through frequent PLA aircraft and naval incursions, cyberattacks, and influence operations ahead of Taiwan’s November local elections has reinforced trader expectations that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before the end of 2026. Beijing continues rhetorical commitments to unification while prioritizing hybrid tactics, sanctions on perceived separatist figures, and diplomatic signaling rather than amphibious mobilization. The brief remaining timeframe further limits scope for rapid force deployment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unanticipated major incident, sudden leadership escalation, or breakdown in US-China risk-reduction talks that alters the current pattern of calibrated deterrence.