China’s preference for sustained gray-zone pressure through naval deployments, aircraft incursions, and area-denial exercises rather than kinetic action underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against a military clash before 2027. The most recent catalyst is Beijing’s early-November unannounced Pacific drills involving over 100 vessels and simulated strikes, which Taipei labeled “silent intimidation” ahead of the APEC summit and Taiwan’s local elections. President Xi Jinping’s November 12 speech reiterated peaceful reunification without referencing force, aligning with historical patterns of coercion short of open conflict. With only weeks remaining in 2026, the narrow window further reinforces expectations of continuity. A sudden miscalculation during ongoing drills, abrupt breakdown in U.S.-China diplomacy at APEC, or unforeseen internal pressures could still shift probabilities.