Traders price a 93% probability against any China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because the narrow window through December 2026 shows no observable large-scale PLA amphibious buildups, logistics surges, or force concentrations needed for cross-strait operations. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and maritime incursions, coast guard patrols, and periodic live-fire drills, including activity in late July 2026. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for forceful unification and favor non-kinetic pressure where possible. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize defensive readiness without triggering corresponding escalations. These patterns, combined with the recognized logistical and alliance-related risks of any kinetic campaign, reinforce the current trader consensus reflected in related markets.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
7% probabilità
$3,213,782 Vol.
$3,213,782 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$3,213,782 Vol.
$3,213,782 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders price a 93% probability against any China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because the narrow window through December 2026 shows no observable large-scale PLA amphibious buildups, logistics surges, or force concentrations needed for cross-strait operations. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and maritime incursions, coast guard patrols, and periodic live-fire drills, including activity in late July 2026. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for forceful unification and favor non-kinetic pressure where possible. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize defensive readiness without triggering corresponding escalations. These patterns, combined with the recognized logistical and alliance-related risks of any kinetic campaign, reinforce the current trader consensus reflected in related markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,213,782Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders price a 93% probability against any China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because the narrow window through December 2026 shows no observable large-scale PLA amphibious buildups, logistics surges, or force concentrations needed for cross-strait operations. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and maritime incursions, coast guard patrols, and periodic live-fire drills, including activity in late July 2026. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for forceful unification and favor non-kinetic pressure where possible. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize defensive readiness without triggering corresponding escalations. These patterns, combined with the recognized logistical and alliance-related risks of any kinetic campaign, reinforce the current trader consensus reflected in related markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,213,782Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price a 93% probability against any China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because the narrow window through December 2026 shows no observable large-scale PLA amphibious buildups, logistics surges, or force concentrations needed for cross-strait operations. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and maritime incursions, coast guard patrols, and periodic live-fire drills, including activity in late July 2026. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for forceful unification and favor non-kinetic pressure where possible. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize defensive readiness without triggering corresponding escalations. These patterns, combined with the recognized logistical and alliance-related risks of any kinetic campaign, reinforce the current trader consensus reflected in related markets.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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