Recent US intelligence assessments concluding that Beijing lacks fixed timelines or commitments for a Taiwan contingency, combined with ongoing bilateral diplomacy including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, have anchored trader consensus that China favors unification without force while recognizing the high risks of amphibious operations. PLA aerial and maritime incursions near Taiwan declined through April and remained moderate in May without new large-scale exercises, while Taiwan’s legislature approved a substantial defense budget increase. These factors, alongside PLA readiness shortfalls noted in official reports, sustain the 90.5% implied probability against a military clash before 2027, though sudden shifts in cross-strait rhetoric or territorial incidents could still alter positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,783,530 Vol.
$1,783,530 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$1,783,530 Vol.
$1,783,530 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US intelligence assessments concluding that Beijing lacks fixed timelines or commitments for a Taiwan contingency, combined with ongoing bilateral diplomacy including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, have anchored trader consensus that China favors unification without force while recognizing the high risks of amphibious operations. PLA aerial and maritime incursions near Taiwan declined through April and remained moderate in May without new large-scale exercises, while Taiwan’s legislature approved a substantial defense budget increase. These factors, alongside PLA readiness shortfalls noted in official reports, sustain the 90.5% implied probability against a military clash before 2027, though sudden shifts in cross-strait rhetoric or territorial incidents could still alter positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,783,530Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US intelligence assessments concluding that Beijing lacks fixed timelines or commitments for a Taiwan contingency, combined with ongoing bilateral diplomacy including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, have anchored trader consensus that China favors unification without force while recognizing the high risks of amphibious operations. PLA aerial and maritime incursions near Taiwan declined through April and remained moderate in May without new large-scale exercises, while Taiwan’s legislature approved a substantial defense budget increase. These factors, alongside PLA readiness shortfalls noted in official reports, sustain the 90.5% implied probability against a military clash before 2027, though sudden shifts in cross-strait rhetoric or territorial incidents could still alter positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,783,530Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US intelligence assessments concluding that Beijing lacks fixed timelines or commitments for a Taiwan contingency, combined with ongoing bilateral diplomacy including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, have anchored trader consensus that China favors unification without force while recognizing the high risks of amphibious operations. PLA aerial and maritime incursions near Taiwan declined through April and remained moderate in May without new large-scale exercises, while Taiwan’s legislature approved a substantial defense budget increase. These factors, alongside PLA readiness shortfalls noted in official reports, sustain the 90.5% implied probability against a military clash before 2027, though sudden shifts in cross-strait rhetoric or territorial incidents could still alter positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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