Incumbent KMT Mayor Chiang Wan-an holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the November 28, 2026, Taipei mayoral election, reflecting his incumbency, established municipal record on infrastructure and family policies, and strong backing from KMT and TPP voters. Recent September polling shows a tight race, with Chiang at 41.7% and DPP challenger Puma Shen at 40.5%—within the margin of error—driven by Shen’s gains among younger and independent voters through emphasis on digital governance and resilience. Party leaders including President Lai Ching-te and former President Tsai Ing-wen have rallied for Shen, narrowing earlier gaps, while other registered candidates remain marginal. Traders appear to weigh historical KMT strength in the capital and expected turnout patterns more heavily than the latest head-to-head numbers.