Republican majorities in Congress have blocked recent impeachment resolutions and 25th Amendment efforts, including those tied to April 2026 statements on Iran. Official medical reports from May 2026 described President Trump as in excellent health and fit for duty following routine examinations, with no verified incapacity. Structural requirements for removal—two-thirds Senate votes or cabinet action—remain unmet absent major new developments. Traders price the low probability of resignation, death, or successful ouster before 2027 based on these institutional and health realities, consistent with historical patterns for second-term presidents. No scheduled events in the coming months indicate imminent change.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
6% probabilità
$10,672,920 Vol.
$10,672,920 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
6% probabilità
$10,672,920 Vol.
$10,672,920 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in Congress have blocked recent impeachment resolutions and 25th Amendment efforts, including those tied to April 2026 statements on Iran. Official medical reports from May 2026 described President Trump as in excellent health and fit for duty following routine examinations, with no verified incapacity. Structural requirements for removal—two-thirds Senate votes or cabinet action—remain unmet absent major new developments. Traders price the low probability of resignation, death, or successful ouster before 2027 based on these institutional and health realities, consistent with historical patterns for second-term presidents. No scheduled events in the coming months indicate imminent change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,672,920Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in Congress have blocked recent impeachment resolutions and 25th Amendment efforts, including those tied to April 2026 statements on Iran. Official medical reports from May 2026 described President Trump as in excellent health and fit for duty following routine examinations, with no verified incapacity. Structural requirements for removal—two-thirds Senate votes or cabinet action—remain unmet absent major new developments. Traders price the low probability of resignation, death, or successful ouster before 2027 based on these institutional and health realities, consistent with historical patterns for second-term presidents. No scheduled events in the coming months indicate imminent change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,672,920Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican majorities in Congress have blocked recent impeachment resolutions and 25th Amendment efforts, including those tied to April 2026 statements on Iran. Official medical reports from May 2026 described President Trump as in excellent health and fit for duty following routine examinations, with no verified incapacity. Structural requirements for removal—two-thirds Senate votes or cabinet action—remain unmet absent major new developments. Traders price the low probability of resignation, death, or successful ouster before 2027 based on these institutional and health realities, consistent with historical patterns for second-term presidents. No scheduled events in the coming months indicate imminent change.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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