The US military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, followed by Delcy Rodríguez’s installation as interim president, has not produced a formal declaration of permanent vacancy or triggered new elections by year-end, preserving institutional continuity and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward Maduro. US-backed negotiations between the government and opposition continue to prioritize reforms to the Supreme Court and National Electoral Council ahead of any vote, with the fourth round of talks underway in mid-November and a possible six-month election window opening only afterward. This timeline, combined with the absence of a completed transition and institutional inertia, shapes trader consensus around Maduro’s official status persisting through December 31, 2026. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an expedited vacancy declaration, intensified pressure from opposition leader María Corina Machado, or rapid legal developments in Maduro’s US proceedings.