The U.S. decision to recognize and engage Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s acting president following Nicolás Maduro’s January 2026 capture has anchored trader expectations against formal recognition of María Corina Machado by year-end. Washington has prioritized stability, oil-sector cooperation, and phased institutional talks with the interim government and select opposition figures, while privately urging Machado to delay her return from exile amid ongoing negotiations over electoral reforms and the National Electoral Council. Recent developments, including oil agreements and diplomatic normalization, reinforce this approach, with no primary-source signals of a policy reversal. Shifts could still arise from domestic pressure after Machado’s planned return, breakdowns in current transition talks, or new congressional or executive actions before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoU.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
3% probabilità
$179,676 Vol.
$179,676 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3% probabilità
$179,676 Vol.
$179,676 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. decision to recognize and engage Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s acting president following Nicolás Maduro’s January 2026 capture has anchored trader expectations against formal recognition of María Corina Machado by year-end. Washington has prioritized stability, oil-sector cooperation, and phased institutional talks with the interim government and select opposition figures, while privately urging Machado to delay her return from exile amid ongoing negotiations over electoral reforms and the National Electoral Council. Recent developments, including oil agreements and diplomatic normalization, reinforce this approach, with no primary-source signals of a policy reversal. Shifts could still arise from domestic pressure after Machado’s planned return, breakdowns in current transition talks, or new congressional or executive actions before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$179,676Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. decision to recognize and engage Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s acting president following Nicolás Maduro’s January 2026 capture has anchored trader expectations against formal recognition of María Corina Machado by year-end. Washington has prioritized stability, oil-sector cooperation, and phased institutional talks with the interim government and select opposition figures, while privately urging Machado to delay her return from exile amid ongoing negotiations over electoral reforms and the National Electoral Council. Recent developments, including oil agreements and diplomatic normalization, reinforce this approach, with no primary-source signals of a policy reversal. Shifts could still arise from domestic pressure after Machado’s planned return, breakdowns in current transition talks, or new congressional or executive actions before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,676Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The U.S. decision to recognize and engage Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s acting president following Nicolás Maduro’s January 2026 capture has anchored trader expectations against formal recognition of María Corina Machado by year-end. Washington has prioritized stability, oil-sector cooperation, and phased institutional talks with the interim government and select opposition figures, while privately urging Machado to delay her return from exile amid ongoing negotiations over electoral reforms and the National Electoral Council. Recent developments, including oil agreements and diplomatic normalization, reinforce this approach, with no primary-source signals of a policy reversal. Shifts could still arise from domestic pressure after Machado’s planned return, breakdowns in current transition talks, or new congressional or executive actions before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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