The Trump administration has publicly sidelined María Corina Machado since the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro, with President Trump stating she lacks sufficient domestic support or respect to lead while praising interim President Delcy Rodríguez and easing sanctions on her government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described a phased stabilization process without endorsing immediate recognition, and U.S.-backed talks have proceeded without Machado's direct participation. No formal U.S. acknowledgment of Machado as leader has occurred through mid-2026. This consensus underpins the 96.6% trader probability against recognition by December 31. Late developments such as swift elections, a major policy reversal, or Machado's successful return and consolidation of opposition support could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4% probabilità
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4% probabilità
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration has publicly sidelined María Corina Machado since the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro, with President Trump stating she lacks sufficient domestic support or respect to lead while praising interim President Delcy Rodríguez and easing sanctions on her government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described a phased stabilization process without endorsing immediate recognition, and U.S.-backed talks have proceeded without Machado's direct participation. No formal U.S. acknowledgment of Machado as leader has occurred through mid-2026. This consensus underpins the 96.6% trader probability against recognition by December 31. Late developments such as swift elections, a major policy reversal, or Machado's successful return and consolidation of opposition support could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$179,084Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration has publicly sidelined María Corina Machado since the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro, with President Trump stating she lacks sufficient domestic support or respect to lead while praising interim President Delcy Rodríguez and easing sanctions on her government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described a phased stabilization process without endorsing immediate recognition, and U.S.-backed talks have proceeded without Machado's direct participation. No formal U.S. acknowledgment of Machado as leader has occurred through mid-2026. This consensus underpins the 96.6% trader probability against recognition by December 31. Late developments such as swift elections, a major policy reversal, or Machado's successful return and consolidation of opposition support could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,084Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration has publicly sidelined María Corina Machado since the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro, with President Trump stating she lacks sufficient domestic support or respect to lead while praising interim President Delcy Rodríguez and easing sanctions on her government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described a phased stabilization process without endorsing immediate recognition, and U.S.-backed talks have proceeded without Machado's direct participation. No formal U.S. acknowledgment of Machado as leader has occurred through mid-2026. This consensus underpins the 96.6% trader probability against recognition by December 31. Late developments such as swift elections, a major policy reversal, or Machado's successful return and consolidation of opposition support could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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