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icon for Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen
Politica·Taiwan

Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen

icon for Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen
Politica·Taiwan

Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen

Chen Yu-jen 88%

Li Wen-liang 11%

Liang Wen-tao 2.5%

Yang Cheng-wu <1%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Chen Yu-jen 88%

Li Wen-liang 11%

Liang Wen-tao 2.5%

Yang Cheng-wu <1%

Polymarket
NUOVO
icon for Chen Yu-jen

Chen Yu-jen

$1,926 Vol.

88%

icon for Li Wen-liang

Li Wen-liang

$376 Vol.

11%

icon for Liang Wen-tao

Liang Wen-tao

$245 Vol.

3%

icon for Yang Cheng-wu

Yang Cheng-wu

$246 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang nominee and incumbent Legislative Yuan representative for Kinmen, holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for the November 28, 2026, county magistrate election. Kinmen’s established pattern as a KMT stronghold, where the party has long dominated local contests with limited DPP participation, underpins this positioning. Her March 2026 party nomination as the sole KMT registrant, combined with her record of advocating local interests in the legislature, has consolidated support and limited viable alternatives. Other listed candidates, including Li Wen-liang and independents, remain at far lower implied probabilities due to weaker organizational backing and historical voting patterns in the county. The upcoming local elections provide the primary near-term catalyst for any shifts in these assessments.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,793
Data di fine
28 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang nominee and incumbent Legislative Yuan representative for Kinmen, holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for the November 28, 2026, county magistrate election. Kinmen’s established pattern as a KMT stronghold, where the party has long dominated local contests with limited DPP participation, underpins this positioning. Her March 2026 party nomination as the sole KMT registrant, combined with her record of advocating local interests in the legislature, has consolidated support and limited viable alternatives. Other listed candidates, including Li Wen-liang and independents, remain at far lower implied probabilities due to weaker organizational backing and historical voting patterns in the county. The upcoming local elections provide the primary near-term catalyst for any shifts in these assessments.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,793
Data di fine
28 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Correlati

icon for Chen Su-yueh vincerà le prossime elezioni per il magistrato della contea di Changhua?

Chen Su-yueh vincerà le prossime elezioni per il magistrato della contea di Changhua?

84%
Sì
icon for Tsai Yi-yu vincerà le prossime elezioni per Magistrato della Contea di Chiayi?

Tsai Yi-yu vincerà le prossime elezioni per Magistrato della Contea di Chiayi?

90%
Sì
icon for Hsu Shu-hua vincerà le prossime elezioni per il Magistrato della Contea di Nantou?

Hsu Shu-hua vincerà le prossime elezioni per il Magistrato della Contea di Nantou?

90%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Chen Yu-jen" a 88%, seguito da "Li Wen-liang" a 11%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 88¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 88% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Aug 14, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen" è "Chen Yu-jen" a 88%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 88% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Li Wen-liang" a 11%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni del magistrato della contea di Kinmen" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.