Republicans are projected to hold 44 Senate seats following the November 3, 2026, midterms, with trader consensus assigning this outcome a 98.5% implied probability. Democrats secured a net gain of seven seats through flips in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas, while defending all their contested seats and achieving majority control. Thirty-three races have been called, leaving only Alaska and Mississippi undecided, both previously Republican-held. Historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party and narrower-than-expected margins in several Republican strongholds contributed to the scale of the shift. The final tally could reach 46 if Republicans prevail in the remaining contests, though late vote counts and certification processes would need to reverse current leads to alter the lower-bracket resolution.