Recent economic data and policy signals have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting 55.5% probability amid a resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures. Strong August nonfarm payrolls, steady unemployment near 4.1%, and elevated readings on CPI have reinforced expectations for tighter policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasized inflation risks from supply disruptions and tariffs. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, and futures markets now embed roughly two additional hikes by year-end following the September 15–16 decision, which includes updated projections. While no-change odds remain material at 39.5%, reflecting uncertainty around energy prices and potential stabilization in global conditions, the current pricing aligns with analyst revisions from firms like UBS and MUFG anticipating sequential tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the September dot plot, October data releases, and any further commentary on monetary policy stance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato25 bps increase 56%
Nessun cambiamento 40%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,529 Vol.
$687,529 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
Nessun cambiamento
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
Nessun cambiamento 40%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,529 Vol.
$687,529 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,970 Vol.
3%
Nessun cambiamento
$136,748 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,201 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data and policy signals have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting 55.5% probability amid a resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures. Strong August nonfarm payrolls, steady unemployment near 4.1%, and elevated readings on CPI have reinforced expectations for tighter policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasized inflation risks from supply disruptions and tariffs. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, and futures markets now embed roughly two additional hikes by year-end following the September 15–16 decision, which includes updated projections. While no-change odds remain material at 39.5%, reflecting uncertainty around energy prices and potential stabilization in global conditions, the current pricing aligns with analyst revisions from firms like UBS and MUFG anticipating sequential tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the September dot plot, October data releases, and any further commentary on monetary policy stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$687,529Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data and policy signals have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting 55.5% probability amid a resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures. Strong August nonfarm payrolls, steady unemployment near 4.1%, and elevated readings on CPI have reinforced expectations for tighter policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasized inflation risks from supply disruptions and tariffs. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, and futures markets now embed roughly two additional hikes by year-end following the September 15–16 decision, which includes updated projections. While no-change odds remain material at 39.5%, reflecting uncertainty around energy prices and potential stabilization in global conditions, the current pricing aligns with analyst revisions from firms like UBS and MUFG anticipating sequential tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the September dot plot, October data releases, and any further commentary on monetary policy stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$687,529Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data and policy signals have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting 55.5% probability amid a resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures. Strong August nonfarm payrolls, steady unemployment near 4.1%, and elevated readings on CPI have reinforced expectations for tighter policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasized inflation risks from supply disruptions and tariffs. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, and futures markets now embed roughly two additional hikes by year-end following the September 15–16 decision, which includes updated projections. While no-change odds remain material at 39.5%, reflecting uncertainty around energy prices and potential stabilization in global conditions, the current pricing aligns with analyst revisions from firms like UBS and MUFG anticipating sequential tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the September dot plot, October data releases, and any further commentary on monetary policy stance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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