Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked appointee sworn in during May 2026, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range on September 16, Trump explicitly stated continued confidence in Warsh, faulted the broader board for the decision against his preference for sub-1% rates, and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings earlier in 2026 that shield Fed officials from at-will dismissal further reinforce institutional barriers. While persistent inflation-driven policy clashes or board dynamics could theoretically create tail risks, current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote given the personal and political alignment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4% probabilità
$24,103 Vol.
$24,103 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4% probabilità
$24,103 Vol.
$24,103 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked appointee sworn in during May 2026, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range on September 16, Trump explicitly stated continued confidence in Warsh, faulted the broader board for the decision against his preference for sub-1% rates, and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings earlier in 2026 that shield Fed officials from at-will dismissal further reinforce institutional barriers. While persistent inflation-driven policy clashes or board dynamics could theoretically create tail risks, current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote given the personal and political alignment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$24,103Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked appointee sworn in during May 2026, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range on September 16, Trump explicitly stated continued confidence in Warsh, faulted the broader board for the decision against his preference for sub-1% rates, and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings earlier in 2026 that shield Fed officials from at-will dismissal further reinforce institutional barriers. While persistent inflation-driven policy clashes or board dynamics could theoretically create tail risks, current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote given the personal and political alignment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,103Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked appointee sworn in during May 2026, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range on September 16, Trump explicitly stated continued confidence in Warsh, faulted the broader board for the decision against his preference for sub-1% rates, and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings earlier in 2026 that shield Fed officials from at-will dismissal further reinforce institutional barriers. While persistent inflation-driven policy clashes or board dynamics could theoretically create tail risks, current trader consensus prices these scenarios as remote given the personal and political alignment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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