Trump’s recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 and the administration’s public emphasis on central bank independence underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal by year-end. Even after the September 16-17 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range—contrary to repeated White House calls for easing—Trump described Warsh as a “good man,” noted their prior conversation, and directed criticism at other board members rather than the chair. Supreme Court rulings preserving for-cause protections for Fed officials further limit at-will removal options. While persistent inflation above the 2% target or further hawkish moves could test this alignment ahead of midterms, current trader consensus reflects the absence of any formal action or unequivocal public signals of conflict.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1% probabilità
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1% probabilità
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 and the administration’s public emphasis on central bank independence underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal by year-end. Even after the September 16-17 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range—contrary to repeated White House calls for easing—Trump described Warsh as a “good man,” noted their prior conversation, and directed criticism at other board members rather than the chair. Supreme Court rulings preserving for-cause protections for Fed officials further limit at-will removal options. While persistent inflation above the 2% target or further hawkish moves could test this alignment ahead of midterms, current trader consensus reflects the absence of any formal action or unequivocal public signals of conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,017Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 and the administration’s public emphasis on central bank independence underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal by year-end. Even after the September 16-17 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range—contrary to repeated White House calls for easing—Trump described Warsh as a “good man,” noted their prior conversation, and directed criticism at other board members rather than the chair. Supreme Court rulings preserving for-cause protections for Fed officials further limit at-will removal options. While persistent inflation above the 2% target or further hawkish moves could test this alignment ahead of midterms, current trader consensus reflects the absence of any formal action or unequivocal public signals of conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,017Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 and the administration’s public emphasis on central bank independence underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal by year-end. Even after the September 16-17 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range—contrary to repeated White House calls for easing—Trump described Warsh as a “good man,” noted their prior conversation, and directed criticism at other board members rather than the chair. Supreme Court rulings preserving for-cause protections for Fed officials further limit at-will removal options. While persistent inflation above the 2% target or further hawkish moves could test this alignment ahead of midterms, current trader consensus reflects the absence of any formal action or unequivocal public signals of conflict.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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