Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core to 2.6%, alongside soft payroll gains of just 57,000 and a 4.2% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, market-implied odds favor no change as the base case, reflecting the Fed’s dual-mandate focus amid still-elevated price pressures and a new chair’s emphasis on inflation credibility. Hawkish signals from recent communications and analyst forecasts for potential December tightening have lifted the probability of a 25 basis point hike to around 22%, while cuts remain discounted given the data trajectory. The August CPI release and subsequent labor reports will provide key updates ahead of the September and October decisions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed in ottobre?
Decisione della Fed in ottobre?
Nessun cambiamento 69%
Aumento di 25 punti base 23%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 6%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base 2.6%
$475,250 Vol.
$475,250 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
6%
Nessun cambiamento
69%
Aumento di 25 punti base
23%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
3%
Nessun cambiamento 69%
Aumento di 25 punti base 23%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 6%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base 2.6%
$475,250 Vol.
$475,250 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$101,268 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$120,579 Vol.
6%
Nessun cambiamento
$102,867 Vol.
69%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$107,893 Vol.
23%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$42,643 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core to 2.6%, alongside soft payroll gains of just 57,000 and a 4.2% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, market-implied odds favor no change as the base case, reflecting the Fed’s dual-mandate focus amid still-elevated price pressures and a new chair’s emphasis on inflation credibility. Hawkish signals from recent communications and analyst forecasts for potential December tightening have lifted the probability of a 25 basis point hike to around 22%, while cuts remain discounted given the data trajectory. The August CPI release and subsequent labor reports will provide key updates ahead of the September and October decisions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$475,250Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core to 2.6%, alongside soft payroll gains of just 57,000 and a 4.2% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, market-implied odds favor no change as the base case, reflecting the Fed’s dual-mandate focus amid still-elevated price pressures and a new chair’s emphasis on inflation credibility. Hawkish signals from recent communications and analyst forecasts for potential December tightening have lifted the probability of a 25 basis point hike to around 22%, while cuts remain discounted given the data trajectory. The August CPI release and subsequent labor reports will provide key updates ahead of the September and October decisions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$475,250Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core to 2.6%, alongside soft payroll gains of just 57,000 and a 4.2% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, market-implied odds favor no change as the base case, reflecting the Fed’s dual-mandate focus amid still-elevated price pressures and a new chair’s emphasis on inflation credibility. Hawkish signals from recent communications and analyst forecasts for potential December tightening have lifted the probability of a 25 basis point hike to around 22%, while cuts remain discounted given the data trajectory. The August CPI release and subsequent labor reports will provide key updates ahead of the September and October decisions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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