Persistent elevated inflation, with core PCE running above 3% and recent CPI prints showing the fastest pace in five months amid energy shocks, remains the dominant driver behind the 65.5% market-implied odds of another 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike by year-end. The FOMC’s October 28 hold at the 3.75-4% target range, following the September increase, drew two dissents favoring immediate tightening, while the September dot plot’s 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 signaled further policy firming. Strong economic growth, resilient consumer spending, and a stable labor market near 4.1% unemployment have reinforced the case against easing. Key near-term catalysts include the November 6 jobs report, October CPI on November 10, and the December 8-9 FOMC meeting with fresh projections.