The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with the updated Summary of Economic Projections, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants projected further tightening in 2026, with the median endpoint at 4.1%, reflecting elevated inflation readings (PCE near 3.7%), resilient economic growth, and a stable labor market. Recent August inflation data and geopolitical risks amplified upside price pressures, shifting the committee toward a more hawkish stance than June projections. Traders are pricing roughly 50-80% odds of moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with this consensus, though incoming data on inflation trajectories and employment could still alter the path.