The Fed inspector general’s September 30, 2026 report found no criminal violations or administrative misconduct by former Chair Jerome Powell in the headquarters renovation probe, closing the sole active investigation after the DOJ dropped its case earlier this year. Judicial rulings quashed related subpoenas, citing lack of evidence and concerns over political interference with monetary policy independence. These developments underpin the 96.9% market-implied odds on “No,” reflecting traders’ assessment that institutional safeguards and evidentiary thresholds make incarceration before 2027 highly improbable. Tail risks remain limited to unforeseen future actions, such as novel regulatory filings or congressional referrals post-January 2028 term end, though none currently appear on the horizon.