The dismissal of the DOJ criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability of "No." Prosecutors presented no evidence of wrongdoing related to Federal Reserve headquarters renovations or congressional testimony, prompting a federal judge to quash subpoenas for lack of substantiation. Powell's shift from Fed chair in May 2026 to his remaining governor role through 2028 has further reduced policy-related exposure. While tail risks such as renewed political targeting or unrelated matters cannot be ruled out in a polarized environment, the absence of active proceedings and judicial findings of insufficient evidence anchor trader consensus on a near-certain outcome.