The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.25%, reflects elevated term premiums amid persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, robust nominal growth, and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion annually. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and market pricing of potential September 2026 rate hikes have reinforced a high-for-longer policy path, limiting downside in long-end yields despite some cooling in breakeven inflation measures. Supply pressures from record debt levels above $40 trillion, competition from corporate issuance, and geopolitical energy risks continue to anchor yields higher than earlier 2026 lows near 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which could shift rate expectations and term premium dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 5,20%
50%
Sotto il 5,15%
50%
Sotto il 5,10%
50%
Sotto 5,05%
50%
Sotto il 5,00%
50%
Sotto il 4,95%
50%
Sotto il 4,90%
49%
Sotto il 4,80%
49%
Sotto il 4,60%
47%
$0.00 Vol.
Sotto il 5,20%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 5,15%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 5,10%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto 5,05%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 5,00%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 4,95%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 4,90%
$0 Vol.
49%
Sotto il 4,80%
$0 Vol.
49%
Sotto il 4,60%
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.25%, reflects elevated term premiums amid persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, robust nominal growth, and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion annually. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and market pricing of potential September 2026 rate hikes have reinforced a high-for-longer policy path, limiting downside in long-end yields despite some cooling in breakeven inflation measures. Supply pressures from record debt levels above $40 trillion, competition from corporate issuance, and geopolitical energy risks continue to anchor yields higher than earlier 2026 lows near 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which could shift rate expectations and term premium dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.25%, reflects elevated term premiums amid persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, robust nominal growth, and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion annually. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and market pricing of potential September 2026 rate hikes have reinforced a high-for-longer policy path, limiting downside in long-end yields despite some cooling in breakeven inflation measures. Supply pressures from record debt levels above $40 trillion, competition from corporate issuance, and geopolitical energy risks continue to anchor yields higher than earlier 2026 lows near 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which could shift rate expectations and term premium dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.25%, reflects elevated term premiums amid persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, robust nominal growth, and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion annually. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and market pricing of potential September 2026 rate hikes have reinforced a high-for-longer policy path, limiting downside in long-end yields despite some cooling in breakeven inflation measures. Supply pressures from record debt levels above $40 trillion, competition from corporate issuance, and geopolitical energy risks continue to anchor yields higher than earlier 2026 lows near 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which could shift rate expectations and term premium dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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