Recent inflation readings, including hotter-than-expected April producer prices and March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with elevated energy costs from Middle East developments, have anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.50% as of mid-May 2026. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance continue to pressure longer-term rates higher, while the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient labor data showing unemployment at 4.3%. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term easing, with analysts now pushing first cuts into late 2027 or beyond. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release and the June FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether yields stabilize above 4% or test lower levels on any disinflation surprise.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$214,463 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3,9%
48%
3,8%
30%
3,7%
18%
3,6%
21%
3,5%
37%
3,0%
13%
2,0%
10%
1,0%
4%
$214,463 Vol.
3,9%
$40,382 Vol.
48%
3,8%
$39,358 Vol.
30%
3,7%
$26,365 Vol.
18%
3,6%
$4,730 Vol.
21%
3,5%
$31,523 Vol.
37%
3,0%
$446 Vol.
13%
2,0%
$341 Vol.
10%
1,0%
$39,559 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation readings, including hotter-than-expected April producer prices and March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with elevated energy costs from Middle East developments, have anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.50% as of mid-May 2026. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance continue to pressure longer-term rates higher, while the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient labor data showing unemployment at 4.3%. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term easing, with analysts now pushing first cuts into late 2027 or beyond. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release and the June FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether yields stabilize above 4% or test lower levels on any disinflation surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$214,463Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation readings, including hotter-than-expected April producer prices and March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with elevated energy costs from Middle East developments, have anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.50% as of mid-May 2026. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance continue to pressure longer-term rates higher, while the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient labor data showing unemployment at 4.3%. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term easing, with analysts now pushing first cuts into late 2027 or beyond. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release and the June FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether yields stabilize above 4% or test lower levels on any disinflation surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$214,463Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings, including hotter-than-expected April producer prices and March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with elevated energy costs from Middle East developments, have anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.50% as of mid-May 2026. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance continue to pressure longer-term rates higher, while the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient labor data showing unemployment at 4.3%. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term easing, with analysts now pushing first cuts into late 2027 or beyond. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release and the June FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether yields stabilize above 4% or test lower levels on any disinflation surprise.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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