Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the July–October 2026 FOMC meetings, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability on “Other” sequences that likely include hikes or mixed outcomes. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9–3, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while June CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year yet remained elevated. Futures markets now price a modestly higher path, with the year-end 2026 median projection near 3.75–4.00%. The September meeting remains the next key catalyst, as incoming data on inflation and employment will determine whether the pause–pause–pause path at 29.5% gains traction or yields to tighter policy.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOther 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$220,903 Vol.
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,978 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,752 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,264 Vol.
1%
Other
$287,403 Vol.
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the July–October 2026 FOMC meetings, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability on “Other” sequences that likely include hikes or mixed outcomes. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9–3, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while June CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year yet remained elevated. Futures markets now price a modestly higher path, with the year-end 2026 median projection near 3.75–4.00%. The September meeting remains the next key catalyst, as incoming data on inflation and employment will determine whether the pause–pause–pause path at 29.5% gains traction or yields to tighter policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$657,789Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the July–October 2026 FOMC meetings, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability on “Other” sequences that likely include hikes or mixed outcomes. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9–3, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while June CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year yet remained elevated. Futures markets now price a modestly higher path, with the year-end 2026 median projection near 3.75–4.00%. The September meeting remains the next key catalyst, as incoming data on inflation and employment will determine whether the pause–pause–pause path at 29.5% gains traction or yields to tighter policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$657,789Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the July–October 2026 FOMC meetings, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability on “Other” sequences that likely include hikes or mixed outcomes. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9–3, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while June CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year yet remained elevated. Futures markets now price a modestly higher path, with the year-end 2026 median projection near 3.75–4.00%. The September meeting remains the next key catalyst, as incoming data on inflation and employment will determine whether the pause–pause–pause path at 29.5% gains traction or yields to tighter policy.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti