Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market underpin trader consensus for no change or a possible 25-basis-point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.4%, while unemployment held at 4.1% amid steady payroll gains. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and the current 3.50-3.75% target range have reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance, consistent with recent projections showing limited easing before mid-2027. The September 15-16 meeting and updated dot plot will provide the next key signal on whether incoming data shifts these market-implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 57%
Aumento di 25 punti base 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,044 Vol.
$71,044 Vol.
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
57%
Aumento di 25 punti base
23%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
2%
No change 57%
Aumento di 25 punti base 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,044 Vol.
$71,044 Vol.
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Vol.
14%
No change
$21,182 Vol.
57%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$17,021 Vol.
23%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$3,985 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market underpin trader consensus for no change or a possible 25-basis-point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.4%, while unemployment held at 4.1% amid steady payroll gains. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and the current 3.50-3.75% target range have reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance, consistent with recent projections showing limited easing before mid-2027. The September 15-16 meeting and updated dot plot will provide the next key signal on whether incoming data shifts these market-implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$71,044Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market underpin trader consensus for no change or a possible 25-basis-point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.4%, while unemployment held at 4.1% amid steady payroll gains. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and the current 3.50-3.75% target range have reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance, consistent with recent projections showing limited easing before mid-2027. The September 15-16 meeting and updated dot plot will provide the next key signal on whether incoming data shifts these market-implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$71,044Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market underpin trader consensus for no change or a possible 25-basis-point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.4%, while unemployment held at 4.1% amid steady payroll gains. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and the current 3.50-3.75% target range have reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance, consistent with recent projections showing limited easing before mid-2027. The September 15-16 meeting and updated dot plot will provide the next key signal on whether incoming data shifts these market-implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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