Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 54%
25 bps decrease 45%
Aumento di 25 punti base 38%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base 29%
NUOVO
NUOVO
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
28%
25 bps decrease
45%
No change
54%
Aumento di 25 punti base
38%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
29%
No change 54%
25 bps decrease 45%
Aumento di 25 punti base 38%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base 29%
NUOVO
NUOVO
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
28%
25 bps decrease
$0 Vol.
45%
No change
$0 Vol.
54%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$0 Vol.
38%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$0 Vol.
29%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$0Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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