Recent moderation in June 2026 CPI to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, alongside core inflation easing to 2.6%, has anchored trader expectations for limited or no Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, supporting the 46% market-implied probability on zero hikes. Persistent elevation above the 2% target, combined with resilient economic growth and a hawkish FOMC median dot plot signaling one possible 25-basis-point increase, underpins the 32% odds on a single hike. Geopolitical energy price pressures earlier in the year and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have tempered cut expectations, while the August 12 CPI release and remaining 2026 FOMC meetings remain key catalysts that could shift the rate path implied by Treasury yields and fed funds futures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 punti base) 3.0%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
46%
1 (25 bps)
32%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 punti base)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 punti base) 3.0%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,230 Vol.
46%
1 (25 bps)
$19,212 Vol.
32%
2 (50 bps)
$32,523 Vol.
12%
3 (75 punti base)
$13,121 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,390 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent moderation in June 2026 CPI to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, alongside core inflation easing to 2.6%, has anchored trader expectations for limited or no Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, supporting the 46% market-implied probability on zero hikes. Persistent elevation above the 2% target, combined with resilient economic growth and a hawkish FOMC median dot plot signaling one possible 25-basis-point increase, underpins the 32% odds on a single hike. Geopolitical energy price pressures earlier in the year and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have tempered cut expectations, while the August 12 CPI release and remaining 2026 FOMC meetings remain key catalysts that could shift the rate path implied by Treasury yields and fed funds futures.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercato aperto: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$135,706Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent moderation in June 2026 CPI to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, alongside core inflation easing to 2.6%, has anchored trader expectations for limited or no Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, supporting the 46% market-implied probability on zero hikes. Persistent elevation above the 2% target, combined with resilient economic growth and a hawkish FOMC median dot plot signaling one possible 25-basis-point increase, underpins the 32% odds on a single hike. Geopolitical energy price pressures earlier in the year and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have tempered cut expectations, while the August 12 CPI release and remaining 2026 FOMC meetings remain key catalysts that could shift the rate path implied by Treasury yields and fed funds futures.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$135,706Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in June 2026 CPI to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, alongside core inflation easing to 2.6%, has anchored trader expectations for limited or no Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, supporting the 46% market-implied probability on zero hikes. Persistent elevation above the 2% target, combined with resilient economic growth and a hawkish FOMC median dot plot signaling one possible 25-basis-point increase, underpins the 32% odds on a single hike. Geopolitical energy price pressures earlier in the year and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have tempered cut expectations, while the August 12 CPI release and remaining 2026 FOMC meetings remain key catalysts that could shift the rate path implied by Treasury yields and fed funds futures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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