Trader consensus on Polymarket currently assigns a 68.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor-market cooling that have lowered expectations for tighter policy. January-to-April 2026 CPI prints came in below consensus forecasts, extending the disinflation trend toward the 2% target and prompting traders to discount preemptive hikes even as growth remains resilient. FOMC communications through the March meeting underscored a data-dependent approach, with officials signaling patience rather than action unless upside inflation risks materialize. With the Fed funds rate anchored near recent cycle highs, markets are pricing steady policy as the base case, though June and September meetings plus upcoming employment data remain key catalysts that could shift odds if growth accelerates or supply shocks emerge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,100,789 Vol.
$1,100,789 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
$1,100,789 Vol.
$1,100,789 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket currently assigns a 68.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor-market cooling that have lowered expectations for tighter policy. January-to-April 2026 CPI prints came in below consensus forecasts, extending the disinflation trend toward the 2% target and prompting traders to discount preemptive hikes even as growth remains resilient. FOMC communications through the March meeting underscored a data-dependent approach, with officials signaling patience rather than action unless upside inflation risks materialize. With the Fed funds rate anchored near recent cycle highs, markets are pricing steady policy as the base case, though June and September meetings plus upcoming employment data remain key catalysts that could shift odds if growth accelerates or supply shocks emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,100,789Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket currently assigns a 68.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor-market cooling that have lowered expectations for tighter policy. January-to-April 2026 CPI prints came in below consensus forecasts, extending the disinflation trend toward the 2% target and prompting traders to discount preemptive hikes even as growth remains resilient. FOMC communications through the March meeting underscored a data-dependent approach, with officials signaling patience rather than action unless upside inflation risks materialize. With the Fed funds rate anchored near recent cycle highs, markets are pricing steady policy as the base case, though June and September meetings plus upcoming employment data remain key catalysts that could shift odds if growth accelerates or supply shocks emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,100,789Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket currently assigns a 68.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor-market cooling that have lowered expectations for tighter policy. January-to-April 2026 CPI prints came in below consensus forecasts, extending the disinflation trend toward the 2% target and prompting traders to discount preemptive hikes even as growth remains resilient. FOMC communications through the March meeting underscored a data-dependent approach, with officials signaling patience rather than action unless upside inflation risks materialize. With the Fed funds rate anchored near recent cycle highs, markets are pricing steady policy as the base case, though June and September meetings plus upcoming employment data remain key catalysts that could shift odds if growth accelerates or supply shocks emerge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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