Recent subdued July 2026 CPI readings have eased near-term hike bets, leaving the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting, while persistent core inflation above the 2% target and resilient labor market conditions keep a 2026 increase in play. FOMC dot plots and dissents signal divided views among officials, with some projecting a modest tightening by year-end amid energy price pressures and Middle East uncertainty. This balance reflects traders weighing the Fed's data-dependent stance against forward guidance limits under Chair Warsh. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, September FOMC deliberations, and any shifts in Treasury yields or jobless claims that could clarify whether inflation reaccelerates enough to prompt action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
50% probabilità
$7,449,200 Vol.
$7,449,200 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
50% probabilità
$7,449,200 Vol.
$7,449,200 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent subdued July 2026 CPI readings have eased near-term hike bets, leaving the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting, while persistent core inflation above the 2% target and resilient labor market conditions keep a 2026 increase in play. FOMC dot plots and dissents signal divided views among officials, with some projecting a modest tightening by year-end amid energy price pressures and Middle East uncertainty. This balance reflects traders weighing the Fed's data-dependent stance against forward guidance limits under Chair Warsh. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, September FOMC deliberations, and any shifts in Treasury yields or jobless claims that could clarify whether inflation reaccelerates enough to prompt action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,449,200Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent subdued July 2026 CPI readings have eased near-term hike bets, leaving the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting, while persistent core inflation above the 2% target and resilient labor market conditions keep a 2026 increase in play. FOMC dot plots and dissents signal divided views among officials, with some projecting a modest tightening by year-end amid energy price pressures and Middle East uncertainty. This balance reflects traders weighing the Fed's data-dependent stance against forward guidance limits under Chair Warsh. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, September FOMC deliberations, and any shifts in Treasury yields or jobless claims that could clarify whether inflation reaccelerates enough to prompt action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,449,200Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent subdued July 2026 CPI readings have eased near-term hike bets, leaving the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting, while persistent core inflation above the 2% target and resilient labor market conditions keep a 2026 increase in play. FOMC dot plots and dissents signal divided views among officials, with some projecting a modest tightening by year-end amid energy price pressures and Middle East uncertainty. This balance reflects traders weighing the Fed's data-dependent stance against forward guidance limits under Chair Warsh. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, September FOMC deliberations, and any shifts in Treasury yields or jobless claims that could clarify whether inflation reaccelerates enough to prompt action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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