Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, with May CPI at 4.2% and revised PCE projections elevated, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid May job gains, underpin the 92% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists broadly forecasting no easing through year-end amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%. Traders price limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with historical precedent that emergency cuts require acute crises rather than gradual inflation trends. A sharp geopolitical escalation triggering recessionary conditions or a sudden liquidity event could still alter this consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$111,684 Vol.
$111,684 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$111,684 Vol.
$111,684 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, with May CPI at 4.2% and revised PCE projections elevated, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid May job gains, underpin the 92% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists broadly forecasting no easing through year-end amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%. Traders price limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with historical precedent that emergency cuts require acute crises rather than gradual inflation trends. A sharp geopolitical escalation triggering recessionary conditions or a sudden liquidity event could still alter this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$111,684Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, with May CPI at 4.2% and revised PCE projections elevated, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid May job gains, underpin the 92% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists broadly forecasting no easing through year-end amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%. Traders price limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with historical precedent that emergency cuts require acute crises rather than gradual inflation trends. A sharp geopolitical escalation triggering recessionary conditions or a sudden liquidity event could still alter this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$111,684Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, with May CPI at 4.2% and revised PCE projections elevated, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid May job gains, underpin the 92% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists broadly forecasting no easing through year-end amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%. Traders price limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with historical precedent that emergency cuts require acute crises rather than gradual inflation trends. A sharp geopolitical escalation triggering recessionary conditions or a sudden liquidity event could still alter this consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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