Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato3.75% 33.1%
4.25% 22.7%
4.0% 20.2%
≥ 4.5% 9.4%
$6,668,051 Vol.
$6,668,051 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
2%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
33%
4.0%
20%
4.25%
23%
≥ 4.5%
9%
3.75% 33.1%
4.25% 22.7%
4.0% 20.2%
≥ 4.5% 9.4%
$6,668,051 Vol.
$6,668,051 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1.0%
$221,783 Vol.
1%
1.25
$137,663 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$143,120 Vol.
1%
1.75%
$142,745 Vol.
1%
2.0%
$255,958 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$80,885 Vol.
1%
2.5%
$167,510 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$56,341 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$485,011 Vol.
2%
3.25%
$58,836 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$199,906 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$525,803 Vol.
33%
4.0%
$1,366,035 Vol.
20%
4.25%
$422,427 Vol.
23%
≥ 4.5%
$2,404,027 Vol.
9%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercato aperto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,668,051Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,668,051Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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