Skip to main content
icon for Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?
Politica·Tassi Fed

Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?

icon for Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?
Politica·Tassi Fed

Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?

4,0% 40.9%

3,75% 25.8%

4,25% 19.7%

3,5% 7.8%

Polymarket

$6,783,119 Vol.

4,0% 40.9%

3,75% 25.8%

4,25% 19.7%

3,5% 7.8%

Polymarket

$6,783,119 Vol.

≤1,0%

$250,308 Vol.

<1%

1,25

$144,042 Vol.

1%

1,5%

$147,116 Vol.

<1%

1,75%

$149,595 Vol.

<1%

2,0%

$264,865 Vol.

<1%

2,25%

$88,730 Vol.

<1%

2,5%

$173,745 Vol.

1%

2,75%

$61,813 Vol.

1%

3,0%

$489,421 Vol.

<1%

3,25%

$66,940 Vol.

1%

3,5%

$203,350 Vol.

8%

3,75%

$532,866 Vol.

26%

4,0%

$1,370,575 Vol.

41%

4,25%

$430,710 Vol.

20%

≥ 4,5%

$2,409,043 Vol.

4%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders assign the highest probability to a 4.0% federal funds rate at year-end 2026 because recent FOMC communications and economic data point to persistent inflation above the 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from the ongoing Middle East conflict. The July 2026 meeting held rates at 3.5-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike amid elevated PCE readings near 3.7% and solid GDP and employment trends. Updated projections from the June SEP revised the median year-end 2026 rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting limited room for cuts or holds if price pressures from oil and core services fail to moderate. Upcoming inflation and labor reports before December will shape whether the path tilts toward 3.75% or 4.25%.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,783,119
Data di fine
9 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Risolutore

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders assign the highest probability to a 4.0% federal funds rate at year-end 2026 because recent FOMC communications and economic data point to persistent inflation above the 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from the ongoing Middle East conflict. The July 2026 meeting held rates at 3.5-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike amid elevated PCE readings near 3.7% and solid GDP and employment trends. Updated projections from the June SEP revised the median year-end 2026 rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting limited room for cuts or holds if price pressures from oil and core services fail to moderate. Upcoming inflation and labor reports before December will shape whether the path tilts toward 3.75% or 4.25%.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,783,119
Data di fine
9 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Risolutore

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Correlati

icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

48%
icon for Non ci saranno cambiamenti nei tassi di interesse della Fed dopo la riunione di settembre 2026?

Non ci saranno cambiamenti nei tassi di interesse della Fed dopo la riunione di settembre 2026?

55%
Sì
icon for Non ci sarà alcun cambiamento nei tassi di interesse della Fed dopo la riunione di ottobre 2026?

Non ci sarà alcun cambiamento nei tassi di interesse della Fed dopo la riunione di ottobre 2026?

71%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 15 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "4,0%" a 41%, seguito da "3,75%" a 26%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 41¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?" ha generato $6.8 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jan 12, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?", esplora i 15 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?" è "4,0%" a 41%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "3,75%" a 26%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.