Persistent inflation pressures, driven by elevated energy prices and July CPI readings showing modest reacceleration, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on near-term Fed policy. At its July meeting, the FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, signaling internal divisions. CME FedWatch currently assigns roughly 55 percent odds to a September increase versus a 45 percent chance of holding steady. Market-implied pricing has shifted from earlier expectations of cuts toward one or more hikes by year-end, influenced by labor-market resilience and oil-price volatility. Key upcoming releases include the next CPI print and the September FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether the central bank moves to tighten further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,206,531 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Riunione di settembre
33%
Riunione di ottobre
45%
$2,206,531 Vol.
Riunione di settembre
$812,365 Vol.
33%
Riunione di ottobre
$434,166 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, driven by elevated energy prices and July CPI readings showing modest reacceleration, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on near-term Fed policy. At its July meeting, the FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, signaling internal divisions. CME FedWatch currently assigns roughly 55 percent odds to a September increase versus a 45 percent chance of holding steady. Market-implied pricing has shifted from earlier expectations of cuts toward one or more hikes by year-end, influenced by labor-market resilience and oil-price volatility. Key upcoming releases include the next CPI print and the September FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether the central bank moves to tighten further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,206,531Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, driven by elevated energy prices and July CPI readings showing modest reacceleration, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on near-term Fed policy. At its July meeting, the FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, signaling internal divisions. CME FedWatch currently assigns roughly 55 percent odds to a September increase versus a 45 percent chance of holding steady. Market-implied pricing has shifted from earlier expectations of cuts toward one or more hikes by year-end, influenced by labor-market resilience and oil-price volatility. Key upcoming releases include the next CPI print and the September FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether the central bank moves to tighten further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,206,531Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, driven by elevated energy prices and July CPI readings showing modest reacceleration, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on near-term Fed policy. At its July meeting, the FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, signaling internal divisions. CME FedWatch currently assigns roughly 55 percent odds to a September increase versus a 45 percent chance of holding steady. Market-implied pricing has shifted from earlier expectations of cuts toward one or more hikes by year-end, influenced by labor-market resilience and oil-price volatility. Key upcoming releases include the next CPI print and the September FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether the central bank moves to tighten further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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