Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate hikes reflects surging uncertainty after April 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly jump tied to energy shocks from geopolitical tensions. This hotter-than-expected print, released May 12, eroded prior rate-cut expectations and boosted market-implied odds of tighter policy later this year, contrasting the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissents. Labor market resilience and sticky core inflation sustain hawkish risks, with traders eyeing May nonfarm payrolls on June 6, upcoming PCE data, and the June FOMC meeting as pivotal catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$148,117 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Riunione di giugno
2%
Riunione di luglio
6%
Riunione di settembre
19%
Riunione di ottobre
29%
$148,117 Vol.
Riunione di giugno
$14,531 Vol.
2%
Riunione di luglio
$770 Vol.
6%
Riunione di settembre
$54 Vol.
19%
Riunione di ottobre
$1,454 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate hikes reflects surging uncertainty after April 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly jump tied to energy shocks from geopolitical tensions. This hotter-than-expected print, released May 12, eroded prior rate-cut expectations and boosted market-implied odds of tighter policy later this year, contrasting the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissents. Labor market resilience and sticky core inflation sustain hawkish risks, with traders eyeing May nonfarm payrolls on June 6, upcoming PCE data, and the June FOMC meeting as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$148,117Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate hikes reflects surging uncertainty after April 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly jump tied to energy shocks from geopolitical tensions. This hotter-than-expected print, released May 12, eroded prior rate-cut expectations and boosted market-implied odds of tighter policy later this year, contrasting the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissents. Labor market resilience and sticky core inflation sustain hawkish risks, with traders eyeing May nonfarm payrolls on June 6, upcoming PCE data, and the June FOMC meeting as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$148,117Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate hikes reflects surging uncertainty after April 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 0.6% monthly jump tied to energy shocks from geopolitical tensions. This hotter-than-expected print, released May 12, eroded prior rate-cut expectations and boosted market-implied odds of tighter policy later this year, contrasting the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissents. Labor market resilience and sticky core inflation sustain hawkish risks, with traders eyeing May nonfarm payrolls on June 6, upcoming PCE data, and the June FOMC meeting as pivotal catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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