Persistent Russian reluctance to engage in direct bilateral talks with Ukrainian leadership, combined with maximalist territorial demands and battlefield confidence, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring no Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027. Recent US diplomatic efforts have focused on technical-level trilateral discussions by late October, potentially in the UAE, with both sides expressing openness in principle yet showing no movement toward a leaders' summit. Putin has repeatedly sidestepped neutral venues while Zelenskyy has signaled readiness for formats such as the December G20 in Miami, but Moscow has rejected such proposals and conditioned any progress on Ukrainian concessions. Ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure and hardened positions on occupied territories further reduce prospects for rapid high-level engagement. A sudden shift in US mediation yielding a leaders' format or major military developments altering incentives could still narrow the gap.