**Recent August 2026 polls position Miguel Cueva Celi (Somos Perú) and Jorge Flores Bazán (APP) as the clear frontrunners for Piura’s provincial mayoralty on October 4, with support in the mid-to-high teens to low twenties and margins often within sampling error.** Multiple surveys from firms such as Piura Data Consultores, Luna Consultores, and Klambp show the pair trading narrow leads while the remainder of the field—including José Morey, Kelly Morillas, Martín Olivares, and Walther Guerrero—trails in single digits, fragmenting the vote and sustaining uncertainty. No dominant late-breaking event has emerged to consolidate support, leaving trader probabilities closely aligned with these head-to-head polling trends and the structural challenge of a crowded ballot.