The recent US-Iran ceasefire, extended into May 2026 after Operation Epic Fury airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded much of Iran’s missile and nuclear infrastructure, has anchored trader expectations against a full-scale US ground invasion before 2027. Ongoing nuclear negotiations, punctuated by President Trump’s alternating deadlines and diplomatic overtures, favor targeted strikes, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and special-operations raids over costly occupation forces, consistent with historical US reluctance for large-scale Middle East ground commitments. Pentagon planning emphasizes precision strikes on remaining military assets rather than territorial control, while domestic polling shows limited public support for escalation. These dynamics have sustained the 69.5 percent “No” probability by underscoring viable diplomatic and limited-military alternatives that reduce the likelihood of boots-on-the-ground invasion within the resolution window.