Diplomatic relations between Canada and the United States remain stable under established bilateral frameworks, including trade agreements and security cooperation, with no verified escalations or policy disputes reaching levels that would prompt expulsion of the ambassador. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to "No" because such an action is historically rare between close allies absent acute crises, and current conditions show continuity in embassy operations and official channels. This consensus aligns with baseline rates of ambassadorial continuity in similar partnerships. Late-stage developments within the resolution window, such as an unforeseen trade rupture, border policy clash, or leadership shift triggering formal recall, could still alter the outcome before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic relations between Canada and the United States remain stable under established bilateral frameworks, including trade agreements and security cooperation, with no verified escalations or policy disputes reaching levels that would prompt expulsion of the ambassador. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to "No" because such an action is historically rare between close allies absent acute crises, and current conditions show continuity in embassy operations and official channels. This consensus aligns with baseline rates of ambassadorial continuity in similar partnerships. Late-stage developments within the resolution window, such as an unforeseen trade rupture, border policy clash, or leadership shift triggering formal recall, could still alter the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ET
Volume
$96Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic relations between Canada and the United States remain stable under established bilateral frameworks, including trade agreements and security cooperation, with no verified escalations or policy disputes reaching levels that would prompt expulsion of the ambassador. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to "No" because such an action is historically rare between close allies absent acute crises, and current conditions show continuity in embassy operations and official channels. This consensus aligns with baseline rates of ambassadorial continuity in similar partnerships. Late-stage developments within the resolution window, such as an unforeseen trade rupture, border policy clash, or leadership shift triggering formal recall, could still alter the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$96Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic relations between Canada and the United States remain stable under established bilateral frameworks, including trade agreements and security cooperation, with no verified escalations or policy disputes reaching levels that would prompt expulsion of the ambassador. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to "No" because such an action is historically rare between close allies absent acute crises, and current conditions show continuity in embassy operations and official channels. This consensus aligns with baseline rates of ambassadorial continuity in similar partnerships. Late-stage developments within the resolution window, such as an unforeseen trade rupture, border policy clash, or leadership shift triggering formal recall, could still alter the outcome before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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