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Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

dic 31

dic 31

Putin - Russia President 54%

None before 2027 43%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 43%

Albanese - Australia PM 43%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Putin - Russia President 54%

None before 2027 43%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 43%

Albanese - Australia PM 43%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Putin - Russia President

$0 Vol.

54%

None before 2027

$44 Vol.

43%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$22 Vol.

43%

Albanese - Australia PM

$0 Vol.

43%

Lecornu - France PM

$0 Vol.

42%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$0 Vol.

42%

Macron - France President

$0 Vol.

41%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$0 Vol.

41%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$55 Vol.

41%

Newsom - California Governor

$55 Vol.

41%

Milei - Argentina President

$0 Vol.

40%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$55 Vol.

40%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$45 Vol.

36%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$56 Vol.

35%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$55 Vol.

35%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$55 Vol.

35%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$55 Vol.

35%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$55 Vol.

35%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$55 Vol.

34%

Merz - German Chancellor

$28 Vol.

34%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$32 Vol.

33%

Trump - USA President

$25 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The market for the next leader removed from power before 2027 stays tightly bunched because most listed figures hold fixed terms or institutional positions extending well into 2027 or later, with no confirmed early elections, constitutional crises, or health events in the past month that would shift removal odds. Trader consensus around 44-45% for “none” and the top individual names reflects this stability, balanced against low-probability tail risks such as sudden cabinet collapses, legislative no-confidence votes, or external shocks. Recent polling aggregates and official statements show incumbents like Trump, Macron, and Erdoğan maintaining support levels consistent with their full terms, while others face routine coalition negotiations or scheduled votes that have not yet produced decisive momentum. Separation could occur through verified developments including snap parliamentary dissolutions, major corruption rulings, or sudden vacancies within the next six months, which would allow traders to reassess individual probabilities relative to the broad field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$692
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The market for the next leader removed from power before 2027 stays tightly bunched because most listed figures hold fixed terms or institutional positions extending well into 2027 or later, with no confirmed early elections, constitutional crises, or health events in the past month that would shift removal odds. Trader consensus around 44-45% for “none” and the top individual names reflects this stability, balanced against low-probability tail risks such as sudden cabinet collapses, legislative no-confidence votes, or external shocks. Recent polling aggregates and official statements show incumbents like Trump, Macron, and Erdoğan maintaining support levels consistent with their full terms, while others face routine coalition negotiations or scheduled votes that have not yet produced decisive momentum. Separation could occur through verified developments including snap parliamentary dissolutions, major corruption rulings, or sudden vacancies within the next six months, which would allow traders to reassess individual probabilities relative to the broad field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$692
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Domande frequenti

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 22 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Putin - Russia President" a 54%, seguito da "None before 2027" a 43%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 54¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 54% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jun 30, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)", esplora i 22 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" è "Putin - Russia President" a 54%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 54% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "None before 2027" a 43%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.