KMT’s March 2026 nomination of Jian Township head Yu Shu-chen as its candidate for Hualien County magistrate has anchored trader sentiment, positioning her as the clear frontrunner ahead of the November 28 vote. Hualien’s long-standing pan-blue alignment and the party’s internal poll-driven selection process have concentrated support around the nominee despite internal challengers such as council speaker Chang Chun. Independent candidate and former Hualien City mayor Wei Chia-hsien remains the main alternative at lower odds, while other declared contenders register minimal market pricing. No major polling shifts or new endorsements have emerged in recent weeks to alter this hierarchy, leaving the implied probabilities stable as the campaign enters its final phase.