**Ongoing gray-zone coercion and diplomatic management continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a kinetic military clash before 2027.** Recent months have featured repeated confrontations near Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, including water-cannon use, close maneuvers, and physical altercations with batons or oars that injured personnel but stopped short of firearms or sustained combat. Philippine officials have publicly rejected Chinese diplomatic notes and reaffirmed the 2016 arbitral award, while Manila and partners have conducted joint naval drills and patrols. Beijing has responded with patrols, research activity, and public rebukes but has also engaged in bilateral talks emphasizing reduced miscalculation risks. U.S. security commitments and the pattern of calibrated responses on both sides have so far contained incidents within non-lethal enforcement measures, supporting the current implied probability that no full-scale clash will occur in the short resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
29% probabilità
$468,730 Vol.
$468,730 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
29% probabilità
$468,730 Vol.
$468,730 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing gray-zone coercion and diplomatic management continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a kinetic military clash before 2027.** Recent months have featured repeated confrontations near Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, including water-cannon use, close maneuvers, and physical altercations with batons or oars that injured personnel but stopped short of firearms or sustained combat. Philippine officials have publicly rejected Chinese diplomatic notes and reaffirmed the 2016 arbitral award, while Manila and partners have conducted joint naval drills and patrols. Beijing has responded with patrols, research activity, and public rebukes but has also engaged in bilateral talks emphasizing reduced miscalculation risks. U.S. security commitments and the pattern of calibrated responses on both sides have so far contained incidents within non-lethal enforcement measures, supporting the current implied probability that no full-scale clash will occur in the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$468,730Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing gray-zone coercion and diplomatic management continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a kinetic military clash before 2027.** Recent months have featured repeated confrontations near Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, including water-cannon use, close maneuvers, and physical altercations with batons or oars that injured personnel but stopped short of firearms or sustained combat. Philippine officials have publicly rejected Chinese diplomatic notes and reaffirmed the 2016 arbitral award, while Manila and partners have conducted joint naval drills and patrols. Beijing has responded with patrols, research activity, and public rebukes but has also engaged in bilateral talks emphasizing reduced miscalculation risks. U.S. security commitments and the pattern of calibrated responses on both sides have so far contained incidents within non-lethal enforcement measures, supporting the current implied probability that no full-scale clash will occur in the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$468,730Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing gray-zone coercion and diplomatic management continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a kinetic military clash before 2027.** Recent months have featured repeated confrontations near Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, including water-cannon use, close maneuvers, and physical altercations with batons or oars that injured personnel but stopped short of firearms or sustained combat. Philippine officials have publicly rejected Chinese diplomatic notes and reaffirmed the 2016 arbitral award, while Manila and partners have conducted joint naval drills and patrols. Beijing has responded with patrols, research activity, and public rebukes but has also engaged in bilateral talks emphasizing reduced miscalculation risks. U.S. security commitments and the pattern of calibrated responses on both sides have so far contained incidents within non-lethal enforcement measures, supporting the current implied probability that no full-scale clash will occur in the short resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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