Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, driven primarily by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding that Beijing lacks commitment to such action due to prohibitive economic costs, military risks, and U.S. deterrence. Recent Xi-Trump summit discussions on May 14 emphasized Taiwan as a priority but yielded no escalation signals amid ongoing routine PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait, including warships near Penghu islands in late April. Taiwan's approval of $25 billion in U.S. weapons purchases on May 8 and $500 million in U.S. House-approved aid further bolster defenses, while distractions like the Iran conflict divert Beijing's focus, reinforcing traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressures over outright invasion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$574,226 Vol.
$574,226 Vol.
Sì
$574,226 Vol.
$574,226 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, driven primarily by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding that Beijing lacks commitment to such action due to prohibitive economic costs, military risks, and U.S. deterrence. Recent Xi-Trump summit discussions on May 14 emphasized Taiwan as a priority but yielded no escalation signals amid ongoing routine PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait, including warships near Penghu islands in late April. Taiwan's approval of $25 billion in U.S. weapons purchases on May 8 and $500 million in U.S. House-approved aid further bolster defenses, while distractions like the Iran conflict divert Beijing's focus, reinforcing traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressures over outright invasion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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