**China conducted a notable submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test on July 6, 2026, firing a long-range missile with a dummy warhead from a Type 094 Jin-class nuclear-powered submarine into international waters in the South Pacific.** This marked the first such underwater launch into open ocean by Beijing, likely involving a JL-2 or JL-3 system with intercontinental range, and was described by Chinese state media as routine annual training not directed at any specific target. The test drew criticism from the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Pacific Island nations over limited advance notice (hours rather than days) and its contribution to regional militarization concerns. **No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches have been reported since July.** Subsequent coverage through mid-to-late August has focused on analyzing the July event’s implications for China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent and second-strike capabilities, alongside calls by 41 states in Geneva for improved notification protocols. With this recent demonstration of capability already completed and no announced follow-on tests or escalatory developments in the intervening weeks, trader consensus reflected in the 81.5% “No” probability aligns with expectations that China will not conduct another ballistic missile launch before the December 31 resolution date. Routine testing patterns and diplomatic signaling needs appear satisfied for the near term.