Traders assign an overwhelming 91.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command changes that would signal imminent conflict. Beijing has continued coercive military pressure through periodic live-fire drills and blockade-style exercises in the Taiwan Strait, most recently in July 2026, but these remain calibrated as warnings rather than invasion rehearsals. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises featured its largest reservist mobilization to date, testing civil-defense measures and U.S.-influenced communications under simulated attack. U.S. assessments highlight persistent People’s Liberation Army readiness gaps and the high expected costs of U.S. and allied intervention, while official Chinese statements continue to prioritize opposition to independence and calls for cross-strait dialogue over military action. These factors sustain the market’s consensus that full-scale invasion remains structurally unlikely within the resolution window.