Tensions in Japan-China relations, driven by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan and the resulting diplomatic freeze, create uncertainty over whether Xi Jinping will extend more than minimal protocol during their expected encounter at the November 2026 APEC summit in Shenzhen. Japanese officials have sought assurances of at least a standard handshake amid the lowest bilateral ties since 1972, yet a full bilateral meeting appears unlikely and any contact may remain limited to ceremonial greetings. This environment keeps probabilities tightly clustered among short durations, with traders weighing the risk of no handshake or a perfunctory exchange against standard diplomatic courtesy. Developments such as last-minute protocol confirmations, public statements from either leader, or the summit’s formal program could shift odds by clarifying the extent of engagement.