Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 1.2% year-over-year rise, above consensus expectations and driven by elevated energy and transport costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, has anchored trader positioning around the 1.1–1.5% band for full-year China inflation. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, declining food prices, and subdued core readings near 1.2% continue to cap upside risks, supporting the 0.6–1.0% outcome as the second-most favored range. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated real-money sentiment that ongoing commodity pressures and producer price rebounds will lift the annual average modestly above the first-quarter 0.9% print without triggering sustained policy shifts, while upcoming May and June releases will test whether external shocks translate into broader price pass-through.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCina Inflazione annuale 2026
1,1 – 1,5% 50%
0,6 – 1,0% 26%
1,6 – 2,0% 19.7%
2,0-2,4% 13.4%
$40,816 Vol.
$40,816 Vol.
<-1,0%
<1%
-0,9 – -0,5%
<1%
-0,4 – 0,0%
<1%
0,1 – 0,5%
3%
0,6 – 1,0%
26%
1,1 – 1,5%
42%
1,6 – 2,0%
20%
2,0-2,4%
10%
2,5%+
5%
1,1 – 1,5% 50%
0,6 – 1,0% 26%
1,6 – 2,0% 19.7%
2,0-2,4% 13.4%
$40,816 Vol.
$40,816 Vol.
<-1,0%
<1%
-0,9 – -0,5%
<1%
-0,4 – 0,0%
<1%
0,1 – 0,5%
3%
0,6 – 1,0%
26%
1,1 – 1,5%
42%
1,6 – 2,0%
20%
2,0-2,4%
10%
2,5%+
5%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 1.2% year-over-year rise, above consensus expectations and driven by elevated energy and transport costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, has anchored trader positioning around the 1.1–1.5% band for full-year China inflation. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, declining food prices, and subdued core readings near 1.2% continue to cap upside risks, supporting the 0.6–1.0% outcome as the second-most favored range. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated real-money sentiment that ongoing commodity pressures and producer price rebounds will lift the annual average modestly above the first-quarter 0.9% print without triggering sustained policy shifts, while upcoming May and June releases will test whether external shocks translate into broader price pass-through.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti