The Bank of Russia’s July 24 decision to cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 14% reflected a cautious shift in its easing cycle, following a spike in headline inflation to 5.9% driven by one-off fuel price surges from Ukrainian strikes on refineries. The central bank raised its 2026 inflation projection to 6–7% while keeping underlying price growth near 4–5% annualized and noting decelerating lending alongside weaker corporate demand expectations. With the next meeting set for September 11, traders assign the highest probability to no change because the revised inflation outlook and more expansionary fiscal stance favor a pause to monitor whether recent pressures prove temporary. A further modest reduction remains plausible if incoming data confirm cooling economic activity and stable core measures, whereas an increase appears remote given the bank’s medium-term path toward its 4% target and ongoing signals of measured accommodation.