The Bank of Russia's September 11 decision to hold the key rate at 14% after ten prior cuts, combined with Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin's late-September comments, has anchored trader expectations for the October 23 meeting. Draft federal budget parameters align closely with the July baseline forecast on structural deficit assumptions, reducing the likelihood of an immediate policy adjustment. Persistent price pressures from recent supply-side factors have kept underlying inflation elevated, supporting the pause in easing and limiting prospects for a cut. Analysts cite these dynamics alongside restrained aggregate demand as reasons the 85.5% consensus on no change reflects skin-in-the-game assessments, while any shift in inflation data or external conditions ahead of the vote could still alter the narrow probabilities for movement.