**Recent inflation acceleration from fuel price spikes and second-round effects, combined with elevated expectations and expansionary fiscal policy, has prompted the Bank of Russia to pause its easing cycle after ten consecutive cuts.** On September 11, 2026, the central bank held the key rate at 14%—its first pause since mid-2025—citing underlying price growth accelerating to a 5–6% annualized rate amid temporary production capacity constraints in certain sectors. Annual inflation is now projected at 6.0–7.0% for 2026, up from prior forecasts, with a return to the 4% target expected only in 2027 under current policy. Analyst surveys show 2026 inflation expectations revised higher to around 6.6%, while the key rate is seen averaging near 14.5% this year before further gradual declines. The economy continues moderate growth with elevated credit activity, but pro-inflationary risks from fiscal loosening and lingering expectations limit aggressive easing. Traders price the December meeting as finely balanced between holding steady and a modest cut, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent disinflationary momentum will reassert itself or if additional data on underlying trends and external conditions will sustain the pause or prompt further caution. Upcoming inflation prints and any signals on fiscal parameters remain key watchpoints that could shift positioning ahead of year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessuna modifica 37%
Riduzione di 25 pb 32%
Diminuzione di oltre 50 punti base 17%
Aumento di 25 punti base 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 dic 2026
Diminuzione di oltre 50 punti base
17%
Riduzione di 25 pb
32%
Nessuna modifica
37%
Aumento di 25 punti base
10%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
8%
Nessuna modifica 37%
Riduzione di 25 pb 32%
Diminuzione di oltre 50 punti base 17%
Aumento di 25 punti base 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 dic 2026
Diminuzione di oltre 50 punti base
$100 Vol.
17%
Riduzione di 25 pb
$1,012 Vol.
32%
Nessuna modifica
$1,358 Vol.
37%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$101 Vol.
10%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$126 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent inflation acceleration from fuel price spikes and second-round effects, combined with elevated expectations and expansionary fiscal policy, has prompted the Bank of Russia to pause its easing cycle after ten consecutive cuts.** On September 11, 2026, the central bank held the key rate at 14%—its first pause since mid-2025—citing underlying price growth accelerating to a 5–6% annualized rate amid temporary production capacity constraints in certain sectors. Annual inflation is now projected at 6.0–7.0% for 2026, up from prior forecasts, with a return to the 4% target expected only in 2027 under current policy.
Analyst surveys show 2026 inflation expectations revised higher to around 6.6%, while the key rate is seen averaging near 14.5% this year before further gradual declines. The economy continues moderate growth with elevated credit activity, but pro-inflationary risks from fiscal loosening and lingering expectations limit aggressive easing. Traders price the December meeting as finely balanced between holding steady and a modest cut, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent disinflationary momentum will reassert itself or if additional data on underlying trends and external conditions will sustain the pause or prompt further caution. Upcoming inflation prints and any signals on fiscal parameters remain key watchpoints that could shift positioning ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,698Data di fine
18 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent inflation acceleration from fuel price spikes and second-round effects, combined with elevated expectations and expansionary fiscal policy, has prompted the Bank of Russia to pause its easing cycle after ten consecutive cuts.** On September 11, 2026, the central bank held the key rate at 14%—its first pause since mid-2025—citing underlying price growth accelerating to a 5–6% annualized rate amid temporary production capacity constraints in certain sectors. Annual inflation is now projected at 6.0–7.0% for 2026, up from prior forecasts, with a return to the 4% target expected only in 2027 under current policy.
Analyst surveys show 2026 inflation expectations revised higher to around 6.6%, while the key rate is seen averaging near 14.5% this year before further gradual declines. The economy continues moderate growth with elevated credit activity, but pro-inflationary risks from fiscal loosening and lingering expectations limit aggressive easing. Traders price the December meeting as finely balanced between holding steady and a modest cut, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent disinflationary momentum will reassert itself or if additional data on underlying trends and external conditions will sustain the pause or prompt further caution. Upcoming inflation prints and any signals on fiscal parameters remain key watchpoints that could shift positioning ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$2,698Data di fine
18 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Recent inflation acceleration from fuel price spikes and second-round effects, combined with elevated expectations and expansionary fiscal policy, has prompted the Bank of Russia to pause its easing cycle after ten consecutive cuts.** On September 11, 2026, the central bank held the key rate at 14%—its first pause since mid-2025—citing underlying price growth accelerating to a 5–6% annualized rate amid temporary production capacity constraints in certain sectors. Annual inflation is now projected at 6.0–7.0% for 2026, up from prior forecasts, with a return to the 4% target expected only in 2027 under current policy. Analyst surveys show 2026 inflation expectations revised higher to around 6.6%, while the key rate is seen averaging near 14.5% this year before further gradual declines. The economy continues moderate growth with elevated credit activity, but pro-inflationary risks from fiscal loosening and lingering expectations limit aggressive easing. Traders price the December meeting as finely balanced between holding steady and a modest cut, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent disinflationary momentum will reassert itself or if additional data on underlying trends and external conditions will sustain the pause or prompt further caution. Upcoming inflation prints and any signals on fiscal parameters remain key watchpoints that could shift positioning ahead of year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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