Recent Bank of Japan communications and inflation data have anchored trader expectations for the October 29-30 policy meeting, with core CPI forecasts holding above the 2% target amid yen weakness and cost pass-through. Following the July 30 hold at 1.00%, analysts highlight upside risks to prices and labor market resilience as supporting a possible 25 basis point hike, consistent with the 43.5% market-implied odds versus 55.0% for no change. The September 17-18 meeting and incoming data on wages and yen levels represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the closely balanced probabilities, as the BoJ continues gradual normalization from prior tightening steps.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 55%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
50+ bps increase 3.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ott 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
55%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 55%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
50+ bps increase 3.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ott 2026
50+ bps decrease
$303 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$303 Vol.
3%
No change
$1,343 Vol.
55%
25 bps increase
$3,370 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$303 Vol.
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications and inflation data have anchored trader expectations for the October 29-30 policy meeting, with core CPI forecasts holding above the 2% target amid yen weakness and cost pass-through. Following the July 30 hold at 1.00%, analysts highlight upside risks to prices and labor market resilience as supporting a possible 25 basis point hike, consistent with the 43.5% market-implied odds versus 55.0% for no change. The September 17-18 meeting and incoming data on wages and yen levels represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the closely balanced probabilities, as the BoJ continues gradual normalization from prior tightening steps.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$5,622Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications and inflation data have anchored trader expectations for the October 29-30 policy meeting, with core CPI forecasts holding above the 2% target amid yen weakness and cost pass-through. Following the July 30 hold at 1.00%, analysts highlight upside risks to prices and labor market resilience as supporting a possible 25 basis point hike, consistent with the 43.5% market-implied odds versus 55.0% for no change. The September 17-18 meeting and incoming data on wages and yen levels represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the closely balanced probabilities, as the BoJ continues gradual normalization from prior tightening steps.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,622Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan communications and inflation data have anchored trader expectations for the October 29-30 policy meeting, with core CPI forecasts holding above the 2% target amid yen weakness and cost pass-through. Following the July 30 hold at 1.00%, analysts highlight upside risks to prices and labor market resilience as supporting a possible 25 basis point hike, consistent with the 43.5% market-implied odds versus 55.0% for no change. The September 17-18 meeting and incoming data on wages and yen levels represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the closely balanced probabilities, as the BoJ continues gradual normalization from prior tightening steps.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
63%
Non ci sarà alcun cambiamento nei tassi di interesse della Fed dopo la riunione di ottobre 2026?
69%
Sì
La Banca del Canada non apporterà alcuna modifica all'obiettivo per il tasso overnight nell'annuncio dei tassi di interesse di ottobre?
79%
Sì
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti